Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Below Key Trendline: More Downside Ahead?

A weekly close below a major trendline has not done the Bitcoin cause any good. The $BTC price did hold the $105,000 horizontal support and has climbed since then. However, the bulls didn’t do enough to get back above the trendline and so could the current price rise just end up being a way for big money to exit the market?

$BTC about to confirm trend break?

Source: TradingView

Perhaps many investors would have thought that the Friday 10 October crash would have put a floor under the $BTC price. However, such a long candle wick to the downside probably needed filling in before the price could rise again, and this turned out to be the case.

In fact, after the initial recovery bounce, the price proceeded to fill in that wick and even ended up making a lower low all the way down at $103,600. The mid-point of the descending channel is what finally held the price, together with the $105,000 horizontal support level.

Since then, the price has risen again, but this time the bulls are faced with the major trendline as resistance and also the top of the descending channel. 

So far, the $BTC price has travelled up to nestle against the major trendline which is now resistance. It can also be seen that this coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci for this move - a likely place for a retrace.

If one throws into the mix the fact that the Stochastic RSI indicators are showing an overbought condition, it rather looks like a rejection and a confirmation of the trend break may be about to take place.

Were the bulls able to push on through, they would also need to contend with the descending trendline from the all-time high, and they would have to make a higher high above $116,000 in order to fully get back into the driving seat. As things stand, this is not looking likely.

Mid-channel and 200-day SMA could provide support

Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows positives as well as negatives. While a rejection from the trendline looks likely, the mid-point of the channel could continue to provide support. Also, the 200-day SMA could give its support. There have been three previous periods in this bull market where the $BTC price has fallen, and confirmed below this important moving average, but each time the bulls have managed to get back above.

At the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI indicators for the daily time frame are just angling up from the bottom, potentially soon to signal upside price momentum. 

And finally, for the list of positives, a descending channel will normally break to the upside, so this must also be borne in mind.

With all those positives said, it still looks likely that there will be more downside price action first. A CME gap at $109,000 could be the first port of call if the $BTC price faces rejection. 

If there is a full-on rejection and the price speeds to the downside, there is the possibility that the bears could take it all the way down to $98,000 where strong support awaits. Falling below this level would put the bear market firmly on the table.

All still to play for in the 2-week chart

Source: TradingView

Zooming right out into the 2-week time frame, instead of the weekly, one can see that the trendline breakdown hasn’t happened. There is still just less than a week to go on this time frame and all is still to play for. $109,000 is a very strong level of horizontal support, so even if the price does come down to that CME gap, there could be a decent bounce from there.

It does need to be borne in mind that the Stochastic RSI indicators are still heading down to the bottom. In the weekly time frame they are almost there. Given that the cross down from the top happened in early August, the price has not come down that much, and has generally been going sideways over more than four 2-week periods so far.

In perhaps less than another month, the Stochastic RSI indicators could be back to the bottom. A serious upswing could take place from there.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.