$14 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: Market Impact

YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Today, over $14 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. This event is expected to influence the market, especially short-term price movements. Bitcoin options expiry alone accounts for $12.075 billion, while Ethereum options expiry stands at $2.135 billion. These expiries are among the largest in recent months.

Bitcoin’s Options Expiry: $12 Billion at Stake

Approximately 139,260 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today. The total notional value of these contracts is $12.075 billion. According to Deribit data, the put-to-call ratio is 0.49, indicating that there are more call options (buy positions) than put options (sell positions).

The maximum pain point for Bitcoin options is set at $85,000, which is the price level that would result in the most significant financial losses for option holders.

This expiry has a larger volume compared to the previous week, where only 21,596 Bitcoin contracts expired. The notional value for those contracts was much lower at $1.826 billion. The larger expiry today is linked to the quarter-end, with the last Friday of March marking the expiry for both monthly and quarterly options.

Ethereum’s Expiry: $2.1 Billion in Options Contracts

Ethereum also faces a significant options expiry today. 1,068,519 Ethereum contracts are set to expire, with a total notional value of $2.135 billion. The put-to-call ratio for Ethereum is 0.39, suggesting more call options than put options.

The maximum pain point for Ethereum is at $2,400. This price level could lead to significant losses for many holders of Ethereum options.

The number of Ethereum options expiring today is much higher than the previous week, which saw 133,447 contracts expiring with a notional value of $264.46 million. The increased volume today is typical of quarterly expiries.

Role of Deribit in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry

Deribit plays a significant role in the expiry process for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. The exchange aligns its expiry schedule with traditional financial markets (TradFi), providing consistency in timing. This alignment helps ensure liquidity and allows traders to transition smoothly between traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets. Deribit adopted this convention to maintain familiarity for traders transitioning from TradFi to crypto markets and to ensure liquidity and market activity peak at a predictable time.

Today’s expiry of over $14 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options underscores the importance of Deribit in maintaining liquidity and stability during market events. It referred to this expiry as one of the largest of the year, reflecting its significance in the broader crypto market.

“Tomorrow is not just any Friday; it’s one of the biggest expiries of the year. Over $14 billion in BTC and ETH options are set to expire at 08:00 UTC. How do you think Q1 will wrap?”

Deribit posed in a Thursday post.

By syncing its options expiry with broader financial markets, Deribit offers a predictable structure for crypto traders. Traditional financial markets also expire options on Fridays, making it easier for traders to plan and execute strategies in both markets.

As the expiry date approaches, traders use Deribit to manage their positions, hedge, or respond to market movements. The predictable schedule provided by Deribit allows traders to operate efficiently, especially during high-volume expiry periods.

Overall, Deribit’s alignment with TradFi expiry practices and its role in managing large options expiries help ensure stability in the crypto markets, especially during significant expiry events like today’s.

Implied Volatility and Market Sentiment

Ahead of today’s options expiry, analysts have been monitoring implied volatility (IV) for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The IV curve for Bitcoin shows a strong bias toward higher prices, with call options priced much higher than put options. This suggests the market expects upward movement in Bitcoin’s price as the expiry approaches. Bitcoin’s curve shows an upside skew, signaling that traders are anticipating a bullish move.

In contrast, Ethereum’s volatility curve is flatter, indicating less directional bias. While Ethereum still shows elevated volatility, the curve suggests uncertainty about the price direction. This implies Ethereum’s price may fluctuate, but there is no clear expectation for a significant upward or downward move.

“Chart 1 – $BTC: BTC showing some serious upside skew, calls priced way higher. Chart 2 – $ETH: ETH’s curve is flatter, but volume is still elevated across the board. Both markets signal anticipation of movement into or post-expiry,”

Deribit noted.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum markets anticipate price movement as the expiry date approaches. Bitcoin’s high call-to-put ratio signals expectations of higher prices, while Ethereum’s flatter curve reflects uncertainty, though still indicating volatility.

Bitcoin Price Movement: Analysts Eye Key Support Levels

Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,946. Analysts at Greeks.live maintain a cautiously bearish outlook for Bitcoin, with many traders expecting a retest of lower price levels, particularly around $84,000–$85,000. This aligns with current price levels, suggesting that a short-term downward movement is still possible.

Despite this, some traders believe Bitcoin remains in a range-bound trading pattern, meaning limited volatility could persist unless a breakout occurs. Greeks.live analysts highlighted key resistance levels at $88,400, where passive selling has been observed, and potential support at $77,000, which one trader called the “definite bottom.”

Traders must closely monitor key technical levels to assess potential price movements. The behavior near these levels will guide Bitcoin’s next steps.

The expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options is expected to increase volatility. Bitcoin’s expiry, in particular, presents opportunities as implied volatility remains under pressure during the quarterly expiry.

The expiry of $14 billion in options today is a significant event. Market movements during this time will influence prices in both the short and long term.