Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Is Over. Data Points to One Last Window for a New ATH

• Data reveals Bitcoin’s all-time high arrived on day 481, a full 68 days sooner than the last cycle
• The established theory of lengthening Bitcoin cycles has been broken by the influence of spot ETFs
• A final window for a potential new record is now open between September 27 and October 21, 2025

Bitcoin’s latest cycle has ignited a critical debate over whether the peak arrived sooner than expected. New data shows the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, 2025, a date that falls exactly 481 days after the April 2024 Halving.

That number is striking because it perfectly mirrors the historical average for prior cycle tops. If this date is confirmed as the peak, it marks a significant break from recent history, with Bitcoin topping out 68 days earlier than it did in 2021.

How Does This Cycle Break the Historical Pattern?

Bitcoin’s Halving events have consistently set the tempo for its market cycles. After the first Halving in 2012, it took 368 days for the asset to hit its cycle high. The next cycle extended longer, with the 2017 peak arriving 525 days after the second Halving.

The cycle following the 2020 Halving lasted even l…

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