Bitcoin holds $91,000 as market liquidity weakens and ETF flows moderate

Bitcoin maintained a foothold above the $88,500 support region this week, staging a recovery move after forming a near-term base.

The cryptocurrency climbed above $91,000, reaching a weekly peak of $91,878 before pausing and drifting lower.

The pullback coincided with a technical break below a short-term bullish trend line at $90,800 on the BTC/USD hourly chart, though the pair has largely continued to trade above $90,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average.

The broader crypto market traded cautiously as Asian trading opened Friday, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $90,600 and $91,400.

The price was last seen near $90,159, up 0.06%, while Ether dropped 0.9% to $3,008 and XRP weakened 1.3%.

The total digital asset market cap slipped 0.3% to $3.1 trillion.

Technical outlook: resistance at $92,000, key support at $89,080

Short-term momentum suggests a potential retest of resistance at $91,200, followed by $92,000.

A sustained break above $92,500 could strengthen bullish conviction, opening the path toward $93,750 and potentially $94,500.

Further extensions may bring $95,000–$95,500 into focus.

However, indicators reflect early signs of exhaustion: the hourly MACD is losing bullish traction, and the RSI has dipped below 50, signaling cooling momentum.

Failure to reclaim $92,000 could trigger a deeper retracement.

Immediate downside support appears at $90,500, with more substantive structure near $89,080 — roughly the 50% Fib retracement of the move from the $86,299 swing low to the recent high.

Below this, risk increases for a slide toward $88,450, followed by $87,500. A drop through $86,300 may accelerate selling pressure in the short term.

Glassnode data shows liquidity compression among short-term holders

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports weakening liquidity conditions, particularly among short-term holders (STHs).

Its STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which measures the profitability of coins moved within 155 days of purchase, has plunged to 0.07, indicating heavy loss-taking and capitulation among recent buyers.

The firm notes that liquidity has “evaporated,” echoing levels last seen in Q1 2022, though market weakness has not yet persisted as long.

Long-term holders (LTHs) tell a different story.

Their Realized Profit/Loss Ratio remains elevated at 408, meaning long-term liquidity remains structurally strong despite recent declines.

Glassnode cautions, however, that a sustained compression toward 10x would increase the likelihood of a deeper market downturn.

Global markets balance Fed expectations, ETF flows moderate

Risk markets were mixed in Asia as traders assessed whether the recent global rally could continue.

Regional equities moved without clear direction, while sentiment improved in China after JPMorgan upgraded its domestic stock outlook to overweight.

Global markets were broadly supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with futures pricing an 80–85% probability of a quarter-point cut next month.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see inflows, albeit at a slower pace.

Net flows totaled approximately $21 million on Nov. 26, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which added $42.8 million and now holds around $69.9 billion in assets.

ETF vehicles collectively represent a material portion of circulating BTC supply, reinforcing the structural shift toward regulated investment access.

With price action stabilizing near $90,000, on-chain weakness, ETF accumulation, and macro policy expectations are likely to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory into year-end.

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