No More 4-Year Cycle? Arthur Hayes Says BTC Can Keep Ripping Through $200K

In an interesting turn of events, Arthur Hayes, an American entrepreneur and co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has revealed that he does not believe in the four-year Bitcoin cycle. This is likely because of changes in the macroeconomic landscape.

During an interview with crypto OG Kyle Chasse, Hayes predicted that bitcoin (BTC) could continue to climb to $200,000 by mid-2026. His stance does not align with the broader market consensus, which expects the bull cycle to end in a few months, as suggested by historical data.

No 4-Year Crypto Cycle

Past bull and bear seasons have always followed a four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving events. The cycle typically begins with halving, followed by a bull run, and then a bear phase. 

Most of the time, BTC reached new all-time highs (ATHs) after halving events; however, this cycle is a bit different. The asset breached its November 2021 high in March 2024, approximately a month before the halving occurred. This development, along with several others, could be the basis for Hayes’ predictions, as he believes the bull run is far from over.

To substantiate his claims, the crypto veteran explained how the liquidity that will drive BTC to new highs is expected to come from the Trump administration. He said that U.S. President Donald Trump will keep the money printer buzzing over the next few years to prevent being voted out of office during the next election.

The “Real Meat” of The Bull Run

As Trump continues to print money and inject credit into the economy through various channels, including mortgage markets and sovereign wealth deals, he will advocate for monetary policies that unlock liquidity.

One of them is interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Hayes insists that the market is already in a rate-cutting cycle. He explained that the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, is left with no choice but to do the bidding of politicians. With rates declining, borrowing is cheaper for Americans, and liquidity rises in the economy.

Bitcoin has historically thrived when the Fed and the central banks of other countries have released liquidity by printing money. However, according to Hayes, BTC does not care where the money is going. As a result, it is bound to rally as long as increased liquidity drives inflation.

In conclusion, Hayes insists that people are underpricing the upside in equities and crypto. The BitMEX co-founder believes that the market is approaching the “real meat” of the bull cycle, where BTC records massive growth.

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