Nobody knows how oil prices will move as long as the Israel-Iran conflict is unresolved

Oil traders can’t price this war. Six straight days of fire between Israel and Iran have thrown global energy markets into total uncertainty, and no one on Wall Street or in the Gulf knows how far this will go.

Nobody has a clear projection. Not one analyst can give a confident figure. And the longer the conflict drags on, the harder it gets to guess where oil will land next week, let alone next month.

Israel launched a surprise airstrike last Friday on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. That triggered a direct response from Tehran, leading to an all-out regional air war.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump, speaking from the White House, demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran and warned that US patience “was wearing thin.” Hours later, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised “irreparable damage” if the US chose military involvement.

Oil fields hit, supply at risk, Strait of Hormuz on the radar

An Iranian missile struck Israel’s Bazan oil refinery, while Israel returned fire at South Pars, the world’s largest gas field shared between Iran and Qatar. As a result, Tehran suspended part of its production. Traders know this isn’t a drill. There are already interruptions to flow.

Market watchers are now focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world’s oil supply. If Iran blocks it — and that possibility is no longer theoretical — the impact would be immediate and global. No need to guess anymore, prices would skyrocket.

John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM, called the market mood a “blanket of unease.” In a note sent Wednesday, John warned that traders are trying to operate in a world where “missile exchanges are commonplace” but warned the conflict can escalate faster than anyone expects.

Energy executives from Shell, TotalEnergies, and EnQuest told CNBC they’re watching the situation closely. More attacks, especially on infrastructure, would damage global supply and make prices even more volatile. Nobody is pricing in stability right now. Everyone’s just trying to survive.

Prices are reacting in real-time. Brent crude for August delivery climbed 0.3% to $76.69 per barrel by mid-Wednesday in London. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July rose 0.5% to $75.25. The increases aren’t huge, but they’re steady — and in a geopolitical crisis like this, steady means warning signs.

Analysts try to model chaos as dollar holds and Fed braces

Per Lekander, founder of Clean Energy Transition, said oil’s recent bump hasn’t changed the larger bearish picture. He said that before the attacks, the market was already heading toward a crash. Too much supply from OPEC and weak global demand made a reset down to $30–$50 per barrel likely. Now? He thinks producers are rushing to pump and hedge before any deeper disruption.

“I was increasingly convinced we were heading for a 2014/2020 reset lower to $30–50,” Per said. “The current conflict makes that outcome even more likely when the conflict is over as producers are now producing and hedging as much as they can.” He also said the current price has a $10 risk premium due to disruptions from Iran — especially lower export volumes and tankers moving slower.

Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, took a more aggressive stance. Speaking to CNBC, Stephen warned the market is “waiting for the next headline.” He said anyone betting on stability is “trading on hope, not reality.”

He compared the current threat to Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the 1974 oil embargo. He put odds at 5% that oil could cross $103 within five weeks and said there’s still a chance it hits $160 before summer ends — but only if the Persian Gulf gets completely disrupted.

As the conflict drags on, the market continues to twitch. On Wednesday, Brent crude rose during Asia hours, dropped in Europe, and climbed back up 0.2% to $76.61. No clear trend. Just panic on a loop.

Meanwhile, the economic data out of the US isn’t helping. On Tuesday, retail sales dropped 0.9% for May — the worst in four months. Labor numbers are weakening too. All of this puts the Federal Reserve in a tight spot.

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