Bitcoin Price Nears Bear Market End as Cost Basis Signal Flashes

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price holds near $64,000 as a cost-basis signal enters its confirmation window.
• Whales accumulated 270,000 BTC, worth $16.7 billion, as ETF inflows began to return.
• A 60-day negative Coinbase premium still points to weaker US spot demand.

Bitcoin traded at $63,957 after moving between $62,489 and $64,332 during the session. The Bitcoin price recovered toward $64,000, but several indicators still show a divided market. A cost-basis crossover suggests the nine-month bear phase may be entering its final stage. Whale accumulation and renewed ETF inflows support that view.

Still, a record-negative Coinbase premium indicates weak United States spot demand. This might have also kept the Bitcoin price below decisive technical confirmation.

Bitcoin Price Cost Basis Signal Points to a Late Bear Phase

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says the short-term holder cost basis has crossed below the active long-term holder cost basis. The model requires a three-day confirmation window before validating the signal. It appears that the Bitcoin price approaches what the analyst describes as the final phase of a bear market.

In this framework, short-term holders are wallets that hold BTC for less than 6 months. Long-term holders hold coins for more than six months. The calculation removes supplies that have been dormant for over seven years from the long-term holder group. That adjustment aims to track coins more likely to remain economically active.

The STH cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to roughly $69,000. That decline reflects newer holders buying at lower levels and reducing their average entry price. The crossover does not confirm that the market bottom is complete. Darkfost said an upward crossover would instead confirm a bull market phase.

Bitcoin Price Gains Support From Whales and ETF Demand

Large holders accumulated more than 270,000 BTC over two weeks, worth about $16.7 billion at prevailing prices. The buying occurred while the United States spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their worst monthly outflows since launch. June redemptions totaled about $4.06 billion before inflows began to return in July.

More recent flow data placed net ETF inflows at $264.4 million across two weeks. Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF contributed notable inflows during that period. The return of demand for funds helped the BTC price rebound after it fell below $58,000 in early July.

Softer United States inflation data also supported the recovery. June consumer prices fell 0.4% from May, while annual inflation eased to 3.5%. Core inflation remained unchanged month over month and rose 2.6% year over year. The report reduced immediate concerns about another Federal Reserve rate increase and supported a broader risk-asset rebound.

Weak Coinbase Premium Limits the Latest BTC Price Recovery

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed negative for 60 consecutive days since May 19. CoinGlass data showed the latest reading was near -0.09%. A negative premium means Bitcoin trades on Coinbase at a lower price than on major offshore venues.

That gap points to softer relative demand among Coinbase users, including U.S. institutions and professional traders. It also contrasts with the ETF rebound and whale accumulation. The Bitcoin price, therefore, faces improving fund flows alongside weak direct spot-market pressure.

The Bitcoin price must first hold the $62,489 session low to preserve the latest recovery structure. The price of Bitcoin also needs a firm break above the $65,000 to $66,000 resistance area.

That range has rejected several rebound attempts since June. No daily close above that zone has appeared during the current recovery. The latest session high at $64,332 leaves that barrier intact.

However, the price levels are mentioned as per the technical analysis and the current market scenario. Given the ongoing volatile scenario in the market, investors should exercise due diligence, as the crypto market often shows higher fluctuations.

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