How Low Could Bitcoin Price Go If History Repeats Right Now?

Bitcoin’s price is showing familiar patterns that could hint at where the market might be headed in the coming weeks, according to analysis from Rekt Capital.

After successfully closing above the $93,500 range low two weeks ago and showing signs of retesting this level last week, Bitcoin rejected from the lower high trendline resistance at approximately $99,000. This rejection mirrors behavior seen during the post-halving range.

Bitcoin Price Historical Patterns Point to Potential Volatility

Bitcoin’s recent market structure is extremely similar to that seen in the post-halving era and mid-2021, based on Rekt Capital’s analysis. Historical comparisons could potentially inform us of future price action in the near term.

Two weeks ago, Bitcoin price closed above the $93,500 level. This is the range low of the current trading range.

Last week, BTC showed promising signs of successfully retesting this level as support.

However, the cryptocurrency also rejected from the lower high trendline resistance within this range, which was positioned at approximately $99,000.

This price action closely resembles the post-halving range. It also featured a downside deviation. That’s a lower high resistance within the range, and an initial rejection from that resistance.

These similarities suggest that Bitcoin could be following a familiar pattern that traders have seen before.

When comparing the current period to mid-2021 tendencies relative to the Bull Market EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages), additional parallels emerge. Back in mid-2021, Bitcoin broke out from between the two Bull Market EMAs – the green 21-week EMA and purple 50-week EMA – to rally back into the previous range area.

At that time, Bitcoin first regained a crucial support level successfully. But subsequently it had a “shaky, volatile retest” of the same level. The analysis points to a particular example where Bitcoin exhibited downside deviation before resuming its upward trend.

If Bitcoin price were to “repeat history perfectly,” it should be able to test the $93,500 level and rally higher throughout the $93,500-$104,500 range.

But the historical pattern of downside deviation suggests that another possible move towards the green 21-week EMA might come before Bitcoin conclusively reclaims the $93,500 level and moves higher throughout the range. This historical pattern suggests that although $93,500 is still a level to watch.

Contrasting Analyst Views Regarding Bitcoin’s Short-Term Trend

Though past tendencies imply possible negative volatility, it’s not as if all experts view Bitcoin with the same idea of its next immediate price action. Two known experts have weighed in with mixed opinions on how Bitcoin could potentially go in the weeks ahead.

Analyst Jolly Green Investor maintains a long-term bullish perspective. As per their observations, both 3-month and 6-month timeframes indicate a buildup of liquidity to the upside. Despite mainstream media headlines causing panic about a potential recession, the analyst believes Bitcoin will continue to grind higher.

This optimistic outlook is based on the observation that the Federal Reserve has shifted from quantitative tightening (QT) to what the analyst describes as “stealth quantitative easing (QE),” while M2 liquidity conditions continue to improve.

Meanwhile, analyst BitBull has focused on the CME gap analysis. He pointed out that Bitcoin price currently has two unfilled CME gaps. This is one above and one below the current price. Based on recent price movements, BitBull suggests that the lower gap might get filled first.

However, the analyst remains optimistic about the medium term. They also forecast that once the lower gap is filled, Bitcoin might experience a solid reversal.

Possibly a breakout over $100,000 this month may occur. The existence of unfilled CME gaps has been in the past one of the many factors that most traders watch out for, since the gaps do get filled in due course, although the timing can be very different.

While Rekt Capital’s study considers historical trends and major support levels, especially the $93,500 range low and the 21-week EMA, these other analyst observations add complementary insights into possible market movers. These involve the liquidity levels and technical gaps that might shape Bitcoin’s price action over the next few weeks.

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