Bitcoin Defies War Tensions: Expert Reveals Surprising Price Predictor

Bitcoin remains stable despite rising tensions between Israel and Iran, defying expectations tied to geopolitical events. According to macro investor Raoul Pal, the key factor behind Bitcoin’s movements is not political instability but global liquidity trends.

Pal shared data via X that shows Bitcoin’s price movements align with the global M2 money supply by nearly 89%. It shows that monetary growth has a more significant impact on Bitcoin than conflicts or breaking news.

Israel’s strike on Iranian energy facilities last week, which resulted in fires at the South Pars gas field, had a direct impact on oil market prices. According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices increased drastically, and there was anticipation that the same would be experienced in the new trading week.

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As confirmed by Alva, a financial analytics company, oil futures rose by more than 7 percent in the wake of the attack. They observed that there are possible movements that take shipping routes at the international level should tensions worsen. Even though this is so, the price of Bitcoin did not respond much to the increase by 0.02%, showing that the theory of liquidity holds by Pal.

Pal’s shared chart captures Bitcoin and M2 money supply data over the past three years

Liquidity Trends Take Center Stage in Bitcoin Market Behavior It shows a consistent trend where Bitcoin moves with liquidity changes regardless of wars, elections, or interest rate adjustments. His analysis suggests that liquidity provides a more reliable framework for understanding Bitcoin’s performance.

This view stands in contrast to traditional financial thinking, where geopolitical risk often triggers volatility in various asset classes. Bitcoin’s stability through multiple global crises indicates a growing disconnect from short-term external shocks.

Implications for Cryptocurrency Investors

This perspective shifts investors’ focus from reacting to geopolitical headlines to analyzing monetary trends. Oil and equity markets may fluctuate sharply due to conflict or political developments, but Bitcoin’s trajectory relies more on broader financial conditions.

Hence, unless major geopolitical events directly impact the global money supply, Bitcoin is likely to maintain its trend. This approach could help market participants better navigate volatility and make informed decisions based on liquidity patterns instead of headline-driven speculation.

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