Bitcoin stays over $105K; ‘overheating’ concerns emerge, Hayes forecasts major surge

Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its position above the $105,000 mark as the Asian business week commenced, demonstrating relative stability over the weekend with minimal price movement and compressed trading volumes.

While the broader market sentiment remains bullish, a new report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests certain metrics are indicating the Bitcoin market might be “overheating,” potentially signaling a near-term consolidation phase.

The world’s largest digital asset exhibited a calm weekend, with price fluctuations limited to around 0.4%.

However, beneath this surface stability, CryptoQuant’s analysis points to some underlying pressures.

The report reveals that Bitcoin demand has surged significantly, reaching 229,000 BTC over the past 30 days.

This figure is rapidly approaching the December 2024 peak demand of 279,000 BTC.

Concurrently, balances held by “whales” – large Bitcoin holders – have increased by 2.8 percent.

Historically, such a pace of accumulation by whales can often signal a slowing down of their buying activity, potentially preceding a market cool-off.

These indicators, taken together, suggest that the current rally, which recently propelled Bitcoin prices to a record high of $112,000, may be approaching a short-term peak.

The CryptoQuant report identifies $120,000 as the next major resistance level for Bitcoin.

This level is tied to the upper band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, a metric indicating a point where unrealized profits for traders would hit 40 percent – a threshold that has historically coincided with local market tops.

Despite these cautionary signals, CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index” remains robust at 80, indicating continued underlying bullish momentum.

Nevertheless, the combination of rising profit margins for existing holders and peaking demand growth suggests that traders might face a period of price consolidation before Bitcoin can embark on its next significant upward move.

Arthur Hayes’ audacious prediction: $250K Bitcoin by year-end?

Adding a highly bullish counterpoint to the near-term caution, Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecasted a dramatic surge in Bitcoin’s price.

Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will more than double within the next six months, potentially reaching an astonishing $250,000.

He attributes this optimistic outlook to an anticipated shift in US President Donald Trump’s fiscal policies, moving away from market-rattling tariffs towards more stimulative measures.

“Midterm elections are coming up in the US,” Hayes told Decrypt during an interview at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

While the Trump administration went hard on tariffs and was taking this market pain for the last three months, that narrative has to shift.

Hayes, known for his bold market predictions, argued that instead of pursuing trade policies that could dampen economic growth and potentially impact American consumers’ affordability, the president will need to demonstrate that he has “brought goodies for the population.”

This, Hayes believes, will be crucial to bolstering Republican prospects at the ballot box in the 2026 midterm elections.

The mechanism for this, according to Hayes, will involve a more accommodative monetary stance.

“They’re going to accelerate the money printing,” Hayes stated, referring to the Federal Reserve – the independent US government agency primarily responsible for managing the nation’s money supply.

Such a scenario, involving increased liquidity, is often seen by crypto proponents as highly bullish for assets like Bitcoin, which are perceived as hedges against currency debasement.

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