Good Friday Shake-Up: Over 200K BTC and ETH Contracts Expire – What’s Next for the Crypto Market?

On this Good Friday, the crypto market braces for turbulence as over $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expire. Market sentiment is still unstable at the time of this significant expiration, due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuating trading expectations. Investors are on edge as President Trump presses the Fed to lower interest rates. However, Chair Jerome Powell remains firm. Options expiration days are frequently crucial turning points for cryptocurrency price movements, and the current event may increase volatility for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Over $2.2 Billion Set to Expire: What It Means for BTC and ETH

Today, April 18, 2025, marks the expiry of 23,221 Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit, representing a notional value of $1.966 billion. Meanwhile, 177,130 Ethereum options – valued at roughly $279.8 million – are also expiring. Combined, the total expiration event exceeds $2.2 billion, setting the stage for significant price movements.

Chart 1: Expiring Ethereum options, published on TradingView, April 18, 2025.

The Bitcoin options carry a put/call ratio of 0.96, implying that calls slightly outweigh puts – a potential indicator of mild bullish sentiment. The “max pain” point, or the price where most options buyers would lose money, stands at $82,000. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading just above that level at $84,648.

Chart 2: Bitcoin options expiring, published on TradingView, April 18, 2025.

Ethereum options show a slightly more optimistic stance with a put-to-call ratio of 0.84, and a max pain level at $1,600. Both metrics indicate that more traders are betting on upward moves, though cautious sentiment prevails. With lower volatility and flat skew, many analysts believe the market could be setting up for a significant post-expiry move.

Calm Before the Storm? Analysts Warn of Potential Black Swan

Despite calm indicators, analysts at Greeks.live suggest that we could be witnessing the calm before a storm. They note that volatility is “crushed” and the options skew is flat – common signs that a larger market move may be brewing. The subdued volatility has been linked to a lack of major news from President Trump this week and Powell’s pushback against expected interest rate cuts.

Market sentiment remains broadly neutral to bearish, with traders expecting more sideways movement. Yet, some are eyeing a possible retest of the $82,000 range for BTC in the near term. Importantly, Greeks.live warns of a higher probability of a black swan event – a rare and unexpected market shock – especially in times of low investor morale and rising geopolitical tension.

As options traders position themselves, many are hedging by purchasing out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. These options have no intrinsic value currently, but could offer protection if the market plunges unexpectedly.

What is Next for Crypto Market Derivatives?

So, the question arises – What is next for crypto market derivatives? As macroeconomic uncertainty lingers, analysts believe today’s options expiry could set the tone for the rest of April. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices deviate sharply from their max pain levels, we may see increased volatility. Traders are advised to watch the post-expiry price action and open interest trends closely, especially with rate decisions and macro news looming.

Last Words: Crypto Market Poised for Post-Expiry Shake-Up

With over $2.2 billion in options contracts expiring, the crypto market is standing at a crossroads. While technical indicators suggest stability, underlying market sentiment hints at potential volatility ahead. Traders should stay alert for price swings as BTC and ETH react to this massive expiry event. Whether the market leans bullish or bearish next may depend not only on technicals but on upcoming macro developments and trader positioning.

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