Will History Repeat Itself? Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Bear Market to Start in October

The ongoing bull market has driven investor optimism about bitcoin’s price to new highs, with some analysts predicting that the asset will surpass $200,000 by year’s end. However, a veteran crypto market analyst has recently predicted that the bitcoin bear market could start in October. 

In an X post, analyst Joao Wedson, the founder of the crypto analytics firm, Alphractal, stated that bitcoin is nearing the end of its historic 4-year cycle. According to Wedson, the digital gold could drop below $50,000. 

Judgment Day for Bitcoin Approaches?

Back in 2024, we pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. If true, this would signal the official closing of this phase in BTC’s history.

Of course, it would be reckless to assume that… https://t.co/3dtekdPCFN pic.twitter.com/ZtndPv0vCm

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) September 3, 2025

Bitcoin Bear Market in October?

Historically, the bitcoin cycle lasts for four years, which begins with the halving event. This is followed by a bull run, then a distribution phase, and finally completed with an extended period market downturn, which will continue until the next halving. 

Notably, earlier in 2024, Aphractal, pointed out a cyclical formation that could mark the end of the bull run. According to Wedson, if the cycle follows its historical pattern, BTC could enter the bear market as early as October 2025.

Per the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart shared by Wedson, bitcoin will likely drop to $100,000, followed by a short-term price surge to $140,000. 

Impact of Institutional Involvement 

Since 2015, bitcoin has consistently followed this 4-year cycle, allowing analysts to predict the tops and bottoms of each cycle. However, Wedson acknowledged that the current market cycle is unlike previous ones. 

He stated that institutional demand for BTC, growing speculation surrounding ETFs, and recent political developments could affect the market outcome. Notably, if the bitcoin fractal cycle repeats, Wedson predicts that bitcoin’s price could drop to $50,000 by October 2026. 

“Personally, I’m eager to see whether the new wave of crypto enthusiasts are right in claiming the 4-year cycle is over and Bitcoin will now rise endlessly—or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, with prices possibly sinking below $50K in the 2026 bear market.”

Meanwhile, institutional demand for bitcoin has continued to increase, with corporations expanding their bitcoin portfolios. Over the past year alone, corporate bitcoin holdings have grown to 1.3 million BTC, worth over $130 billion. 

Institutional investors now hold more than 5% of the entire BTC supply and are showing no signs of stopping. It remains to be seen whether the historic bear market starts in October or institutional demand extends the bull market. 

“Perhaps only Satoshi Nakamoto knows what will actually happen,” Wedson concluded.

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