Why Altcoin Season Isn’t Here Yet?

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Altcoin season has not arrived yet, and expert Benjamin Cowen has explained why in his latest video. Typically, alt season is defined as a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, both in USD terms and when measured against Bitcoin itself. Historically, this has only occurred after a significant drop in Bitcoin dominance, something that hasn’t been seen in the current cycle.

This kind of rally was clearly seen in 2017 and again from late 2020 to early 2021. But since then, no true alt season has taken place as Bitcoin has been dominating the market. Infact, this time, Bitcoin has been gaining strength, and most altcoins have been slowly dropping, both in USD and especially when measured against Bitcoin.

2017 vs 2021 vs Now, What Has Changed?

The analyst used a key chart to track this, comparing the total altcoin market (without Bitcoin and stablecoins) to Bitcoin’s market cap. In both the 2017 and 2021 alt seasons, this chart dropped to 0.25 before altcoins began to rally. Right now, it’s still around 0.31, which means that altcoins are still too high compared to Bitcoin. So a full altseason is unlikely to start just yet.

Also its important to note that during past cycles, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the end of quantitative tightening (QT) played a major role in kickstarting alt season. But this time, fewer rate cuts have been made, and QT is still ongoing, although at a slower pace. 

As a result, less risk is being taken in the market and altcoins are struggling to gain attention and liquidity. 

Bitcoin’s Dominance Is Crushing Altcoins

Also, many altcoins were seen declining even while Bitcoin has been rising. Some short-term rallies have happened, but most altcoins are far below their highs from earlier this year. So, even though a few coins have done well, the overall altcoin market is still weak.

This cycle has often felt different, but the same pattern is playing out, just more slowly. Altcoins still have not fallen to the usual bottom level compared to Bitcoin. Until that happens, a proper alt season is not expected. It is possible that the bottom could be reached by September or November, based on past trends.

The Fed’s Moves Could Make or Break Alt Season

For altcoins to truly rally, more rate cuts and a full stop to QT will probably be needed. Monetary conditions have remained tight, and market liquidity has continued to favor Bitcoin. Until the broader economic and policy environment shifts, and until altcoins drop further in value relative to Bitcoin, the arrival of alt season will likely continue to be delayed.