Polymarket in Trouble! $140M Zelensky Suit Bet Triggers Manipulation Claims

Polymarket, a popular blockchain-based prediction platform, is facing backlash over a $140 million market related to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. The dispute has raised concerns about the platform’s vulnerability to manipulation by large holders.

0/ This $140 million prediction market may expose Polymarket as a platform which can be easily manipulated by whales.

If this market doesn’t resolve as “yes”, the reputation of Polymarket may be ruined.

Details 👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/nKjIOtz9b2

— John Lee Quigley (@bitcoinnomadic) July 6, 2025

The market in question was meant to resolve “yes” if Zelensky was seen wearing a suit by the end of June. According to the market rules, photographic or video evidence would confirm the outcome.

Credible Proof Emerges

Since the backlash, multiple media outlets have published photos and reports showing Zelensky in a suit before the deadline. Even Polymarket’s own official X account acknowledged this in a press release.

However, despite these confirmations, the market remains unresolved. The delay has triggered debates around the fairness and reliability of Polymarket’s resolution system.

Whale Influence Clouds Outcome

The platform uses the UMA Protocol, a decentralized oracle system, to determine market outcomes. UMA allows holders of its native token to vote on how an event should be resolved.

Voting power is weighted by the number of tokens each participant holds, giving wealthier users, often referred to as “whales,” significant influence.

In the Zelensky suit market, several whales voted “no,” arguing that he had not been seen wearing a suit. Many smaller holders followed suit, resulting in a majority “no” vote.

On July 1 at 09:33 a.m. ET, Polymarket issued a clarification, stating that there was no “consensus of credible reporting” confirming Zelensky had worn a suit. This position stands in contrast to over 50 media outlets that have acknowledged such reports.

Polymarket Faces Pressure

The ongoing controversy has led Polymarket to update its X bio, now describing the platform as “community-run.” However, some observers argue this may be an attempt to deflect accountability.

Speculation is also growing that the platform’s reluctance to intervene could be tied to an ongoing fundraising round, where reputational damage might impact investor confidence.

As the situation remains unresolved, there are currently three possible outcomes: the market could resolve to “yes,” resulting in a 50/50 split, or be canceled with refunds issued. So far, Polymarket has not made a final announcement.

Meanwhile, the dispute continues to draw attention. The odds for a “yes” resolution have climbed from 1% to 3% in the past 24 hours, reflecting a growing shift in sentiment among participants.

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