“The Bull Market Is Over,” Says CryptoQuant CEO, But Not Everyone Agrees – Here’s the Counterpoint

With Bitcoin seeing a notable dip from its recent highs, many are starting to wonder: Is the bull market already behind us? According to Ki Young Ju, the CryptoQuant CEO, we might be entering bear territory based on some key on-chain data. But not everyone agrees. Another analyst, James Van Straten, believes there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank, and he has the charts to back it up.

What the Bitcoin Realized Cap Is Telling Us

Let’s start with the Bitcoin Realized Cap, a metric that looks under the hood of Bitcoin’s market value. Instead of focusing on current BTC prices, it adds up the price of each coin the last time it moved, giving us a better picture of what investors actually paid. Think of it as the “total investment” made by holders rather than what the market says it’s worth right now.

Graph 1 – Published on CryptoQuant, April 8, 2025

Ki Young Ju points out that when Bitcoin Realized Cap keeps rising, but Market Cap doesn’t follow along, it’s often a red flag. That means money is still flowing in, but the BTC price isn’t moving up with it, a sign of buyer fatigue. Historically, this kind of mismatch has often shown up at the end of bull runs.

But There’s Another Side to This Story

That’s where James Van Straten, a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, steps in with a different take. He says we’re not seeing the kind of behavior typical of a bear market, at least not yet. One key metric he highlights is the Bitcoin Realized Cap drawdown, which measures how far it’s fallen from its peak. In past bear markets, this number dropped hard as investors sold at a loss. But this time? It’s barely moved.

The other counterpoint to this is:

Shallow drawdown = Confidence = Bullish.

Drawdown from Realized Cap is low → coins aren’t underwater → less forced selling, more confidence.

Price is 25% off highs → not a typical “bear” behaviour.

Realized Cap is increasing → capital… https://t.co/mYyVhxYGXw pic.twitter.com/r89lF5vD2J

— James Van Straten (@btcjvs) April 6, 2025

In fact, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been quietly ticking higher, even as BTC price dipped. That suggests people are still buying, not panic-selling. Van Straten puts it simply: “Bear markets don’t usually start with confidence and inflows.” So, if investors are still showing belief in Bitcoin, maybe this dip is just that, a dip.

BTC Price Action Snapshot: What the Charts Are Saying

Bitcoin initially trended lower within a descending channel before a sharp breakout triggered by oversold RSI conditions. The BTC price surged but soon entered a sideways range between $78,000 support and $81,000 resistance. Multiple overbought RSI readings and alternating golden/death crosses on the MACD indicated indecision. Despite attempts to breach resistance, momentum faded, and price action turned neutral. Support at $78,000 remains intact, attracting buying interest on dips. The failure to sustain above $80,000 suggests weakening bullish pressure.

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokkp0608, published on April 8th, 2025

Final Thoughts: Is This the End or Just a Pause?

It’s too soon to call time on Bitcoin’s bull cycle. On one hand, we’ve got on-chain signals pointing to weaker price responses despite new capital entering the market, a classic late-stage bull sign. But on the other hand, Realized Cap shows that investors are holding firm, with no major signs of panic or exit. As always, Bitcoin tends to test conviction during uncertain phases like this. Traders should closely watch these levels for potential price swings as Bitcoin continues to react to macroeconomic factors and broader market trends.

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