Bitcoin Refuses to Crash but Makes Another Lower Low: What Happens Next?

The Bitcoin price is currently confirming below the last support at $59K in the short-term time frame. A crash still hasn’t happened but just about all the boxes have been ticked which signal that the next big leg down is probably almost upon us. Is the $BTC price about to fall to the low $50K region or below?

An inverse cup and handle pattern?

Source: TradingView

In technical analysis there are patterns that are instantly recognizable. One of these is the cup and handle pattern, which is a bowl-shape (cup) with a much smaller bowl-shape (handle) at its side. In the short-term chart above we have the inverse of this. While the cup and handle pattern can be very bullish, the reverse is true for an inverse cup and handle. 

For the above pattern to play out, the $BTC price would fall down through the neckline of the pattern and then confirm the neckline as resistance. As can be seen in the chart, a red arrow marks the potential measured move, which could take the price down to $49K.

Down to $52K a next logical step?

Source: TradingView

The daily chart reveals the bear market so far in its entirety. Two big bear flags have been the continuation patterns that have led to the current price of under $60K. Could the current pattern of the inverted cup and handle take the $BTC price down to $49K if it plays out?

It certainly could, and this could potentially take the price down to test the bear market trendline, a move which actually signalled the end of the previous bear market.

Successive lower highs and lower lows are bearish, and there is no getting away from this. Taking this bearishness to the neckline of the inverse cup and handle would in high probability lead to the next breakdown. 

Once below $57,500 there is no decent support level to speak of until the price gets down to around $52K. It very much looks like the price may be going there.

Fibonacci golden level reached: bounce or down to $39K?

Source: TradingView

Wednesday’s TA article for the $BTC price might have been rather bearish to say the least up to now. That said, there is the chance that with the price perfectly reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a bounce may now be forthcoming. The 0.618 is the golden Fibonacci level, and it is from here that most bounces do take place.

However, if one looks at the chart, the furthest down of the Fibonacci retracement levels is the 0.786. This matches perfectly with support and resistance levels at $39K. With perhaps another three or four months left in this bear market, could the $BTC price make this even deeper retracement?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.