XRP Price Faces Challenges Despite 89% Chance for ETF Approval

XRP’s price has struggled to gain momentum in recent weeks, consolidating within a narrow range. Despite speculative excitement around the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF, the altcoin continues to face short-term bearish pressure. 

The strong speculation for XRP’s ETF approval has been overshadowed by unfavorable market conditions.

XRP Witnesses SEC Support, Indirectly

The approval odds for a spot XRP ETF have gained attention, with the chances rising to 89% on Polymarket. XRP enthusiasts point to the rising institutional demand as a key factor pushing for eventual approval. However, while many expected the approval by the end of July, the odds on Polymarket recently dropped to just 17%. 

Positive news, nevertheless, came with Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which includes XRP among Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana, receiving approval to be converted into a spot ETF by the SEC. While XRP hasn’t yet been directly approved for its own ETF, the indirect approval through GDLC is a step forward.

XRP ETF Approval Odds. Source: Polymarket

Despite the rise in speculative ETF chances, XRP’s short-term outlook is clouded by market volatility. XRP investors’ inconsistent behavior is marked by frequent oscillation of the net exchange position change between positive and negative zones. 

Bouts of accumulation have had a very short lifespan as selling tends to take over soon after. This shows a lack of certainty, which has caused investors to cash out shortly after accumulating XRP. Furthermore, this frequent shift has also resulted in the XRP price taking a hit.

XRP Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

XRP Price Faces Challenge In Securing Support

XRP’s price showed volatility throughout June, but the broader market trend kept the altcoin consolidated under the $2.32 level. Attempts to break this level have been unsuccessful, with the resistance remaining firm. Given the market’s ongoing uncertainty, XRP may continue to face challenges in securing a clear bullish trend.

XRP’s price has only managed to flip the 50-day EMA into support twice, signaling a lack of sustained bullish momentum. The frequent buying and selling behavior of investors has prevented XRP from making any lasting gains. With resistance at $2.27, it seems unlikely for XRP to rise above this level without more market stability.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If selling pressure continues to dominate, XRP could dip below the $2.13 support level. A further decline to $2.02 would invalidate the bullish thesis and push XRP into a deeper downtrend. Until a more stable market environment and clearer bullish signals emerge, XRP’s short-term outlook remains uncertain.