Derive Predicts A Bitcoin At 125,000 Dollars By June

Bitcoin is struggling to stay above 100,000 dollars, but traders are becoming increasingly optimistic about a possible rise. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, now estimates the probability of the cryptocurrency reaching 125,000 dollars by the end of June to be 44.4%, a significant upward revision compared to previous forecasts.

Bitcoin Could Reach 125,000 Dollars

Dr. Sean Dawson, director of research at Derive, an on-chain options protocol, published a report on February 13 revealing that the probability for Bitcoin to reach 125,000 dollars by June 2025 has increased from 41.9% to 44.4%.

This analysis comes as Bitcoin has been trading below the symbolic 100,000 dollars mark since February 7, after reaching a historical peak of 109,000 dollars on January 20, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Downside risks seem to be easing, with the probability of a return to 75,000 dollars having dropped to 12.1%, compared to 17.8% previously. This outlook contrasts with that of Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who predicted in January a possible return to the 70,000-75,000 dollar range, a level he believes could trigger a “mini-financial crisis.”

A Market in a Consolidation Phase with Optimistic Prospects

The sentiment index of the crypto market currently displays a “neutral” score of 48 out of 100 as of February 14, reflecting a certain caution among investors. Trader Jelle emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin does not reclaim the 100,000 dollar mark, market conditions will remain unstable.

Nonetheless, long-term prospects remain very positive. VanEck, a major asset manager, maintains its forecast of a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025, before reaching new historical highs. Their analysts anticipate a Bitcoin price of 180,000 dollars “at the peak of the cycle” and Ethereum exceeding 6,000 dollars.

Despite a consolidation phase below 100,000 dollars, the influx of institutional investors and the success of Bitcoin ETFs suggest a return of the bullish trend. Analysts remain confident for the coming months, with some like Cathie Wood from ARK Invest even predicting a Bitcoin price of 1.5 million dollars by 2030.