A market analyst believes XRP is now on the verge of rallying to any of his two-digit targets after the retest of a crucial EMA.
The recent commentary comes on the back of XRP's latest recovery push on the back of a broader market-wide upward campaign. Notably, while Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to set new all-time highs, XRP has equally rallied, recently reclaiming $2.5 with a 14.42% increase in the past week.
Amid this bullish phase, EGRAG is now predicting a continuation of the uptrend, citing historical data as his inspiration. Importantly, his latest analysis revolves around the 21-period EMA on the 2-week chart. EGRAG has identified a pattern surrounding this crucial moving average, which will determine XRP's next direction.
Data from his chart shows that whenever XRP breaks above this 21 EMA and comes back to retest it as support after hitting a roadblock during the initial rally, it often rallies again once the retest successfully concludes.
Historical XRP Price Action Around the 21 EMA
Interestingly, this pattern has played out twice in XRP's history. In the first instance, XRP soared above the 21 EMA in March 2017 after nearly two years of trading below it. Following the breakout, XRP initially rallied 7,085% to a high of $0.3988 in May 2017 but faced resistance and pulled back.
After the pullback, XRP consolidated for several months. During this period of range-bound price action, it dropped to retest the 21 EMA as support. Importantly, this retest was successful, as XRP displayed enough resilience not to collapse below the 21 EMA support. After the retest, the second rally erupted, leading to a 1,400% rise by January 2018.
This pattern played out again during the 2020/2021 cycle. Specifically, in November 2020, XRP rallied 177% to break above the 21 EMA. However, it faced resistance at the $0.79 high and subsequently collapsed. The pullback led to a retest of the 21 EMA, but XRP held above the support. Following the retest, XRP again surged 455% to $1.9 in April 2021.
XRP Price Action Around the 21EMA | EGRAG Crypto
XRP Eyes $11, $20, or $30 if History Repeats
Notably, both patterns played out during bull runs. Now, in the current bull run, a similar price action is taking shape. First, XRP broke above the 21 EMA when it rallied 580% from November 2024 to January 2015, hitting a high of $3.4. However, this peak introduced massive resistance, leading to a pullback in February 2025.
Since then, XRP has continued to consolidate, having recently retested the 21 EMA as support and held above it. Now, EGRAG is predicting a recovery similar to what happened in 2017/2018 and 2020/2021.
Accordingly, EGRAG has presented three targets, leveraging the rallies of the previous instances. He says if XRP follows the 2020/2021 pattern and rallies 455%, its price could reach $11. However, if it mirrors the 2017/2018 run of 1,400%, the price target soars to $30. Meanwhile, the average of these targets is $20, representing a 924% increase.
EGRAG also presented some advice to investors. According to him, there is a "Dumb and Smart" indicator they can use to avoid losses. Leveraging this indicator, EGRAG suggested that investors start selling when they're feeling smart, and buy when they're feeling dumb.