80 million barrels of oil are sitting on the sidelines waiting to move through Hormuz. That's 40 supertankers. After the MOU was signed, oil has already fallen from above $120 to around $77. Now the market is starting to focus on what happens if those barrels actually start flowing again. Because if they do, the supply shock everyone was worried about starts looking a lot less severe. And suddenly that move back towards the mid-$60s doesn't seem so crazy anymore. The oil trade has changed very quickly over the last few days. A lot of people haven't caught up to that yet.

80 million barrels of oil are sitting on the sidelines waiting to move through Hormuz.

That's 40 supertankers.

After the MOU was signed, oil has already fallen from above $120 to around $77.

Now the market is starting to focus on what happens if those barrels actually start flowing again.

Because if they do, the supply shock everyone was worried about starts looking a lot less severe.

And suddenly that move back towards the mid-$60s doesn't seem so crazy anymore.

The oil trade has changed very quickly over the last few days.

A lot of people haven't caught up to that yet.

— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) Jun 19, 2026