Evening digest: Trump signals end to Iran conflict, Bitcoin steadies

Global markets reflected heightened uncertainty on Tuesday as Donald Trump signaled a potential shift in the Iran conflict even as Tehran indicated openness to a ceasefire.

Bitcoin steadied alongside broader risk assets on easing geopolitical concerns, while US labour market data pointed to cooling demand for workers.

At the same time, gasoline prices surged past $4 per gallon, highlighting the economic impact of ongoing disruptions in global energy supply.

Trump signals shift as Iran hints at ceasefire

Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to wind down the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, reported the Wall Street Journal, citing administration officials.

The move suggests a potential pivot toward limiting the conflict’s duration while pursuing diplomatic pressure to restore trade flows.

Trump has urged other nations to take responsibility for reopening the chokepoint, criticizing allies for not participating more actively. “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” he said in a social media post.

The strait remains critical to global energy markets, with around 20% of the world’s oil supply passing through it.

Its continued disruption has contributed to rising crude prices, with US benchmark oil closing above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.

Analysts warn that prolonged closure could push prices toward $200 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Iran signaled openness to ending the conflict.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees to prevent future aggression. He added that the situation in the Gulf stems from “hostile and aggressive actions” by the US and Israel.

Bitcoin stabilizes as risk sentiment improves

Bitcoin traded near $67,700, rising about 2% over 24 hours, as signs of a potential diplomatic off-ramp supported broader risk sentiment.

The cryptocurrency is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged decline that erased more than 40% of its value over five months.

The shift in tone around the conflict has also lifted equities, with US stock indexes surging in the session.

Across crypto markets, Ethereum rose as much as 3.3%, while Solana and XRP posted more modest gains.

Despite the rebound, positioning data indicates continued caution among investors.

Options markets show significant downside hedging, with over $1.5 billion in put options clustered at the $60,000 level.

Analysts note that while sell-side pressure is easing, stronger demand will be needed to confirm a sustained recovery.

US labour market shows signs of cooling

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed to a moderation in labour demand ahead of the escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Job openings fell to 6.88 million in February from a revised 7.24 million in January, broadly in line with expectations.

Hiring activity also declined sharply, dropping by nearly half a million to 4.85 million.

The hiring rate fell to 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2020, reflecting a broader slowdown across sectors sensitive to consumer spending and commodity cycles.

Despite weaker hiring, layoffs remained stable, suggesting employers are still cautious about reducing headcount.

At the same time, consumer sentiment showed resilience. The Conference Board’s index edged up to 91.8 in March from 91 in February, defying expectations of a decline.

Economists note that the data largely predates the latest escalation in the Middle East, which has since added uncertainty to the economic outlook.

US gasoline prices surge past $4 per gallon

Fuel prices in the US have climbed sharply amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline prices briefly exceeded $4 per gallon, the highest level since August 2022.

Prices have surged more than 30% since the conflict began, driven by constrained oil flows. “Gasoline and diesel prices continue to climb to multi-year highs as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz curtails the flow of millions of barrels of crude oil each day,” said Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy.

“The situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable, but upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist as long as global oil supplies are constrained by the continued disruption in the Strait,” he added.

Diesel prices have also risen significantly, surpassing $5 per gallon, with further increases likely if the disruption continues.

Analysts warn that sustained energy price increases could weigh on economic growth and contribute to inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

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