Ethereum Faces Crucial Price Test as Short-Term Capital Surges

• Ethereum’s Hot Capital rose 54.4% in under two weeks, signaling a sharp return of short-term investor interest.
• ETH is currently trading near the $1,800 level, and analysts have confirmed that the price will surge or drop to $1,600.
• On-chain and derivatives indicators are aligned with growing speculative action in the market.

The short-term investor engagement of Ethereum has risen sharply. Glassnode reported that ETH “Hot Capital” was $2.60 billion by April 17 but increased to $4.34 billion by April 28. The increase to $10.8 bln more showcased 54.4% growth, the highest growth rate of hot capital since December of 2024. This might be indicative of increasing trader engagement in ETH even as there is a fluctuation of prices in the market.

$ETH Hot Capital, after bottoming at $2.60B on 17 Apr, has rebounded sharply to $4.34B as of 28 Apr – its highest level since 26 Mar. pic.twitter.com/57ERpD4fuA

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 29, 2025

The hot capital increase share is consistent with a slight ETH price bounce. They were around $1,800 after dropping to near $1,500 in the beginning of April. Analysts are now looking at $1,800 as a critical level. 

Kiran Gadakh, an analyst at Arcane Research, said that a 4-hour close above the ‘resistance’ could result in a bullish market for Ethereum and other altcoins. On the other hand, Nebraskangooner stated that any value below $1,800 would likely send ETH below the support level toward a dip to the $1,600 range at higher volumes.

Mixed Signals Across Spot and Derivatives Markets

However, the average price looks better, but the flows on spot exchanges are still bearish. According to Coinglass data, outflows have been present since mid-March, as evidenced by the large red bars on the netflow scale. This trend shows ETH being transferred out of exchanges, which is considered a bearish signal and also signals less immediate buying demand.

On the derivatives side, the growth rate is steadily increasing. The volume of Ethereum futures has grown by 21.81%, and it now stands at $45.81 billion. Open interest rose to $21.18 billion, with options volume up 16.22%. Long/short ratios remain slightly bullish.

Binance has the highest long/ short position ratio of traders at 1.7825, while that of OKX is at 1.28. However, liquidation continues to favor short positions as 22,780 longs are cleared in 24 hours while 16,550 short positions. Overall, even though derivative activity has been on the rise, exchange flow data paints the picture of prudence. 

Ethereum Foundation Restructures Governance

In addition to the changes in the market, there have been changes in the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation. It adopted a co-executive director system to improve the organization’s operational management. Wei-Hao Wang and Tomasz K. Stańczak will act as executives in charge of daily activities and, amongst other things, strategy implementation.

1/ Today, we’re excited to share three updates from the EF board and management team.

— Ethereum Foundation (@ethereumfndn) April 28, 2025

They will collaborate with Bastian Aue and Josh Stark, who are proficient in the execution and organization of structures. The executive team will not be a part of the board, but it will keep working towards achieving the board’s overarching goals.

The board of directors comprises Vitalik Buterin, Aya Miyaguchi, Patrick Storchenegger, and Wang. Buterin leads the technical aspect of the project, while Miyaguchi focuses on the outside world. Storchenegger operates under the guidelines of nonprofit laws in Switzerland. Wang will act as a link between the board and executive branch, which is newly fashioned out of the company.