Oil prices fell over 2% on Wednesday after news broke that OPEC+ may raise production again in October

Oil took a hit on Wednesday after word broke that OPEC+ is weighing another production boost for October.

Brent dropped by $1.54, closing at $67.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.62, ending the day at $63.97. That’s a 2.23% and 2.47% decline, respectively.

The timing? Just days before an online meeting on Sunday, where eight members of OPEC+ will decide whether to bump up output again, according to Reuters.

Traders didn’t see this coming. The market had priced in a steady stance, but now there’s a real chance OPEC+ might change direction. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said the odds of a production hike “have gone up” ahead of the weekend.

The cartel wants its market share back, and a fresh increase would fast-track plans to ease a major supply cut that was supposed to stay in place through 2026.

OPEC+ weighs early exit from second cut layer

This isn’t just a small tweak. The potential move on Sunday would mean OPEC+ starts unwinding the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of extra cuts it had agreed to keep until the end of 2026. That number covers 1.6% of the world’s oil demand. If the group lifts quotas as expected, it’s jumping ahead by more than a year.

The bloc already approved a 2.2 million bpd increase from April through September. That was on top of a 300,000 bpd bonus quota for the UAE.

At their last meeting in August, the eight core members also bumped production by 547,000 bpd for September, pushing the total increase this year to 2.5 million bpd, including the UAE’s allocation.

But the reality hasn’t matched the promises. Some members are still offsetting previous overproduction, while others can’t hit their quotas due to technical or capacity problems. Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB bank, warned:

“If output is raised in line with new quotas, we see the market moving into a sizeable surplus from September 2025 through 2026, with inventories building unless countered by renewed restraint.”

The group, which includes OPEC, Russia, and other partners, pumps about half of the world’s total oil. Until recently, it had been holding back barrels to keep prices from collapsing. That strategy could be reversed if Sunday’s decision goes through.

But even as they talk about pumping more, the fact that actual output has lagged behind pledges has been helping support prices for now.

Other data adds to pressure on oil prices

The oil dump wasn’t just about OPEC+. There’s more hitting the demand side. U.S. job openings in July came in at 7.181 million, way below the expected 7.378 million, according to the Labor Department. Weak labor numbers raise concerns about consumption and economic momentum.

Manufacturing’s also struggling, with U.S. factory activity shrinking for the sixth straight month, signaling more demand weakness ahead.

The market is still waiting for inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API), expected to show a dip in crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks. A drop like that normally supports prices, but with this OPEC+ move looming, supply headlines are dominating demand ones.

Over in Nigeria, things aren’t running smooth either. The massive 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery is facing downtime. A catalyst leak and other technical faults have taken parts of the plant offline. Fixes could take two weeks, putting a dent in local refining but not enough to balance what could come from OPEC+.

That said, there’s still another 2 million bpd of group-wide cuts on the books. Those are separate from the 1.65 million being debated this weekend. Both layers were meant to run through the end of 2026, but the group now seems eager to move faster.

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