Bitcoin Price Rally Faces Risk as Activity Hits 2-Year Low

Key Insights

• Bitcoin (BTC) price crossed $81,000 as wallet activity hit two-year lows.
• BTC open interest rose above $1.2 billion while funding stayed negative.
• Bulls need a clean close above $83,000 to extend the BTC price rally.

Bitcoin price climbed above $81,000 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since late January. The move extended a weekly gain of about 5.3%, even as broader crypto trading stayed uneven.

Yet the BTC price rally carries a weakness that traders cannot ignore. Santiment data showed daily active Bitcoin wallets near 531,000, while new wallets fell to about 203,000.

Both readings sit around two-year lows. The result is a sharp gap between price strength and network demand, just as derivatives leverage expands again.

Bitcoin Price Breaks $81K as Activity Weakens

Bitcoin price moved higher after buyers reclaimed the $80,000 level. According to Coingecko data, BTC price rose from around $79,000 late Monday in the United States to above $81,000 on Tuesday.

That move marked the highest level since late January. It also came while options desks positioned for more upside through call ratio structures. Those trades often benefit from a steady grind higher, rather than a sudden spike.

Still, the spot move lacks broad on-chain confirmation. Santiment data shows only 531,000 active wallets making daily transfers. New wallet creation also dropped to 203,000 per day.

That matters because strong rallies usually attract more users. This one has pushed higher while participation keeps fading. In market terms, fewer active wallets can mean less fresh demand if large holders sell.

Bitcoin Price Rally Meets Short-Heavy Leverage

Bitcoin (BTC) price action also reflects a major shift in derivatives markets. Binance BTC open interest 30-day change has moved above the $1.2 billion area, revisiting levels seen in May and October 2025.

That headline looks risky at first. October 2025 also saw heavy growth in open interest before Bitcoin suffered a deep decline. But the current structure differs in one key area: funding.

In October, funding rates across major venues were strongly positive. That suggested traders were crowded into leveraged long positions. When the price turned lower, forced selling accelerated the decline.

Now, funding rates remain negative across major derivatives exchanges. That means leverage is growing while traders still lean bearish, or at least remain short-biased.

The setup changes the risk. A long squeeze does not look like the main threat today. Instead, a sustained Bitcoin price move above $80,000 could pressure shorts and extend the BTC rally.

BTC Price Faces $83K Test Before Further Upside

Bitcoin price now faces a clear technical test near the 200-day moving average. Market watchers place that zone around $83,000 to $84,000. A daily close above it would strengthen the case for another leg higher.

Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a weekly MACD crossover from April 13. Similar crossovers in 2023, 2024, and 2025 preceded large advances in the BTC price.

This signal does not guarantee a repeat, but it keeps momentum traders engaged.

Bitcoin ETF demand also helped sentiment. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $162.8 million in net inflows for the week ending May 1.

One trading day brought about $630 million into the products. Macro conditions remain unstable.

U.S.-Iran tensions continue to shape risk appetite, while traders also watch earnings and jobs data. The short liquidations near $270 million added fuel to the move above $80,000.

The bullish case for Bitcoin price needs a clean close above $83,000. That could open $89,000, then $94,000.

The weaker case starts with rejection near that zone and a move back under $80,000. Thin activity would then become a larger concern.

For now, BTC open interest shows leverage is rising, but not in the same long-heavy way seen before October’s decline. The market has strength, yet the network still looks quiet. That split keeps the rally tradable, but still difficult to trust fully today.

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