Bitcoin Sheds 14%: Should Traders Expect Massive Recovery This June?

Bitcoin is trading at $62k, slightly below its Friday open. Investors hope the day will bring relief following several waves of consistent decline.

However, the apex coin recently retraced to a level not seen in over three months. It dipped to a low of $61,073 a few hours ago, but quickly recovered and currently trades slightly below its opening price.

In hindsight, the current week is shaping up to be the worst in months as the asset is yet to register any green. The recent downtrend started on Monday, following reports from the US and Iran regarding escalations.

Strategy also made it public that it sold a tiny fraction of its BTC bag. Many analysts contend that the sale was a liquidity test and a way to reassure its investors that it was ready to defend the company and sell more Bitcoin if need be.

The next day, Iran announced it was no longer interested in negotiating with the US. Recall that investors were thrilled by the prospect of the conflict ending. However, the recent shift has caused significant panic, contributing to the current downtrend.

Nonetheless, Michael Saylor remains the biggest contributor to the ongoing decline. After selling 32 BTC to “reassure shareholders,” crypto investors are even more fearful of what could happen next. The selling may continue in the coming days, and the firm currently holds over 800k BTC.

The event has resulted in a cascading effect on the crypto market. Due to this, the apex coin posted a massive 6% decline on Tuesday and a 4% dip the next day. It is down by almost 14% on a weekly scale. The last time it was down this bad was in March 2025 when it lost a slightly higher figure.

Why Bitcoin Crashed

A sweep through onchain shows no sudden rise in selling pressure. On the Bitcoin accumulation and distribution chart, the sharks have resumed buying. Involved in the buying frenzy are the whales who recently joined the frenzy.

The recent involvement by this cohort may be a good indication of when the downtrend will end, as they have been known to stack up when prices decline. The recent accumulation by this group holding between 1k-10k BTC started in May 11 when the asset saw its first significant decline. They’ve since increased the buying volume and are currently leading the rest of the cohorts.

However, the humpbacks have not reduced their selling. Since May 12, they’ve sold an average of 30k BTC daily. On Thursday, they dumped an equal amount, contributing to the current dip.

From all indications, the two top players in the spot market are currently accumulating and absorbing the losses from the humpback. Given this situation, the spot market played little to no role in the recent declines.

A recent report by CryptoQuant points to another culprit. In its latest report termed “a Market Without Buyers,” the firm reported that exchange-traded funds were one of the biggest contributors to the ongoing downtrend.  

This may be the case as US spot ETFs have seen significant outflows over the last three weeks. One of the biggest happened last week when net inflow was negative $733 million. The trend continued into the current week. Between Monday and Wednesday, these investment funds saw an average negative net inflow of $460 million.

Capital Outflow: Another Culprit

The report also pointed to another culprit: capital outflow from the crypto market. The realized cap dropped from $1.12 trillion to $1.07 trillion. With the metric measuring the amount of capital invested in the network, this suggests that over $40 billion left the market.

Additionally, the Coinbase premium, which shows institutional interest in the apex coin, is negative. It’s been this way since May, contributing to the ensuing downtrend.

To sum it all up, spot has been seeing healthy buying over the last few weeks and is not responsible for the massive declines. However, the same cannot be said for  ETFs and other derivatives. The large outflow from these sectors and reduced institutional interest in Bitcoin are fueling the decline.

It is also worth noting that the fundamentals are playing a significant role. Aside from geopolitical events, US economic data is also a big factor in recent price movements.

Will Bitcoin Recover This June?

The chances of a full recovery this June are slim. Although there has not been a significant shift in onchain metrics, price action over the last 48 hours shows slowing selling pressure.

On the 4-hour scale, the asset maintained trading above $62,400. While there were instances it dropped below the mark, it has held above it for an extended period. The last time Bitcoin maintained trading above a set level was last week, when it hovered around $73k.

In a nutshell, current price action suggests that the bulls are establishing a level with demand concentration. It remains to be seen how long it will hold.

Nonetheless, on the 1-day timeframe, BTC may retrace slightly lower. The asset created a fair-value gap during the February dip, and analysts believed it would fill in the coming days. Going into the second quarter, one analysis also noted the possibility. As a result of the recent downtrend, the gap is close to a complete fill. Taking this into consideration, a drop below $60k is still likely.

Drawing lessons from how prices panned out in the second month reveals that there will be no massive buybacks this June. Following the massive dip between Feb 1 and 5, the asset became rangebound. The same will likely play out over the rest of the current month.

Nonetheless, a surge above $66k is almost guaranteed. The relative strength index shows that Bitcoin is oversold. A rebound is near, given this reading.

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