Bitcoin trades near all-time high, but upside volatility could still lead to new highs

Interest rates on OKX’s USDT “Simple Earn” flexible savings product surged from 5% to 53% in the midday Asian trading hours on Friday, as Bitcoin and the crypto market tasted volatility for the first time in Q3 2025.

According to market analysts, the spike is one of the highest short-term price hikes for the yield-bearing product in recent months. Historically, similar jumps have coincided with Bitcoin’s price rally. 

On November 10, 2024, the savings product reached a 44% rate when Bitcoin opened at $76,677, and the coin went on to reach $90,000 in just days. Now, with Bitcoin trading at $118,500, an intraday increase of 6.5%, investors seem uncertain about taking profits over the possibility of a continued market run.

Bitcoin price dooms short sellers

According to Coinglass data, over $1.14 billion in short positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. The liquidations came against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s ascent above $118,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 67, meaning the market is in a state of excessive buying.

When the largest coin by market cap reached $113,000 during the US market trading close, Bitcoin transfers from miners to exchanges rose to 3,900 coins, the first uptick seen since May 23. 

Miners hold onto their coins unless prices go up to a level that justifies selling, mainly to cover the cost of mining operations. They could also be seeking to realize profits before the end of the “US crypto week,” when many expect price corrections to take place.

CryptoQuant’s UTXO data reveals that only 15% of the market consists of holders who bought Bitcoin in the past month, down from 30% during previous price highs. This decrease indicates that the current uptrend is under the control of existing holders rather than by fresh capital inflows.

SOPR and exchange activity indicate caution

The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders shows that recent buyers are not selling, and are instead helping keep downward pressure on prices low.

Data from Santiment reveals that since June, balances have dropped by 21% to 315,830 BTC. The trend is more profound when looking at the past five years, during which 1.88 million Bitcoins, or 61% of exchange-held coins, have moved into self-custody wallets. 

Long-term holders are comfortable placing their assets outside of exchanges to reduce the chances of any large-scale sell-offs.

On the derivatives market front, open interest (OI) has gone up to $41.177 billion, a 5.67% increase. Higher OI means there’s more liquidity and attention in the futures market, and goes hand-in-hand with increased volatility. 

Glassnode: Market activity to grow further

Late Thursday, Glassnode shared a chart on X that showed a $4.4 billion jump in Bitcoin’s realized cap, a metric that tracks the value of coins based on their last move, after the price crossed $113,000. 

Unlike market cap, Realized Cap reflects actual capital inflows – only rising when coins move at higher prices. The $4.4B jump as $BTC broke a new ATH above $112K confirms real conviction behind the move, not just speculative markup: https://t.co/2CkVmgTmet pic.twitter.com/xtDARvgcdH

— glassnode (@glassnode) July 10, 2025

Per the market analysis platform, realized cap increases only when coins change hands at higher prices, by actual capital inflows, not speculative valuation.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a chart comparison of the market cap to realized cap, is at 2.2. Previous market tops in March and December 2024 saw the MVRV ratio exceed 2.7. Looking at the two figures, market watchers believe the coin may still not have reached the peak of the run yet.  

Market analyst Axel Adler Jr. explained that an inflection point for selling takes place when MVRV reaches 2.75, a level that will see Bitcoin clock $130,900, about 17% above its $108,000 all-time high. 

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