Lyn Alden Cuts 2025 Bitcoin Price Prediction After Tariff, Still Eyes $100K Potential

Macroeconomist and investment strategist Lyn Alden revised her Bitcoin price prediction for 2025. Though geopolitical and economic challenges have recently emerged, she predicted high numbers for the BTC price. She maintains that Bitcoin will likely close the year above its current value of approximately $85,000. 

Her earlier optimism has been tempered by policy changes, including tariff announcements from former U.S. President Donald Trump. Alden highlighted the asset’s correlation with liquidity cycles. She also warned that traditional financial market stress could trigger unpredictable moves in Bitcoin trading.

What’s Dragging Down Bitcoin’s 2025 Outlook?

Alden explained that her original BTC forecast had projected a significantly higher year-end figure before Trump’s February tariff announcement dampened market sentiment. “Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” she said. She implied that expectations for Bitcoin price growth were directly impacted by changes in trade policy.

However, she still expects Bitcoin to outperform over the long term, especially if global liquidity improves. According to Alden, a large-scale “liquidity unlock,” such as Federal Reserve intervention through quantitative easing or yield curve control, could help push BTC price toward six-figure territory. In such an environment, Bitcoin would benefit disproportionately compared to traditional assets.

How Bitcoin Reacts Beyond Wall Street Hours

Unlike traditional markets that operate within fixed hours, Bitcoin trading occurs around the clock. It makes BTC more sensitive to sudden changes in investor sentiment. Alden emphasized this unique trait as both a strength and a weakness. On weekends, when traders can’t react through equity markets, Bitcoin becomes the outlet for shifting capital and risk-off sentiment.

She also noted that Bitcoin has the potential to decouple from indexes like the Nasdaq 100 in certain macroeconomic conditions. If a scenario similar to the 2003–2007 pre-Global Financial Crisis period reemerges, weakening dollar cycles may return. In that case, Bitcoin could follow trends seen in gold and emerging markets. Alden believes the economic backdrop might create the ideal conditions for a positive BTC forecast over multiple years.

In a September research paper, Alden dubbed Bitcoin a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” highlighting that Bitcoin moves in sync with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over 12 months. Compared to assets like the S&P 500 or gold, Bitcoin showed the highest correlation with global liquidity flows, reinforcing her long-term BTC forecast.

Where’s Bitcoin Headed in This Macro Storm?

Alden believes that the current economic cycle could see capital flowing away from traditional U.S. equities toward harder assets and alternative stores of value. In that landscape, Bitcoin may benefit even if the Nasdaq underperforms. 

She anticipates some level of price turbulence due to ongoing geopolitical risks and liquidity tightening. However, despite this uncertainty, Alden remains cautiously optimistic. If macro conditions align favorably, Bitcoin has a “good chance” of reclaiming the $100,000 mark before year-end. By this statement, she is supporting her adjusted but still bullish Bitcoin price prediction.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin Eyes Growth Despite Macro Headwinds

While Alden’s revised Bitcoin price prediction is slightly more conservative than before, her overall view on the asset remains positive. Navigating through volatile conditions in Bitcoin trading and influenced by factors like tariffs and liquidity, Bitcoin continues to evolve as a unique global asset. 

With long-term dynamics favoring decentralized, hard-money alternatives, Bitcoin’s future remains promising. However, the path ahead may be shaped by market turbulence and unexpected macro shifts.

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