Why Circle Acquisition May Still Be A Good Bet For Ripple Despite IPO

Today marks the debut of Circle IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CRCL. Investors clamored for shares: the IPO was oversubscribed 25 times, implying demand 25 times greater than available stock.

That level of interest suggests a valuation near $7 billion. Amid this frenzy, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya took to X to recommend that major crypto firms—namely Ripple or Coinbase—move quickly to acquire Circle before public trading begins.

His view: paying $12–13 billion for Circle would be “a steal” considering its long-term potential in stablecoin infrastructure, especially as the U.S. gears up to formalize crypto regulations under the GENIUS Act.

Circle’s IPO: Details

Circle IPO launch follows months of preparation. The company filed to raise $6 billion in primary proceeds. Yet, with a 25x oversubscription, only a fraction of that capital will be allocated at the initial pricing.

This level of demand implies robust institutional confidence. As shares begin trading today, Circle’s leadership maintains it is not for sale.

In formal statements, the firm “denies any acquisition interest” from Ripple, Coinbase, or any other potential buyers, asserting full focus on public-market growth.

The IPO price per share was set at $35, positioning the company’s equity value near $7 billion. Circle plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including further expansion of its USDC stablecoin business and potential investments in blockchain partnerships.

Chamath Weighs In: A “Genius” Acquisition for Ripple or Coinbase

On June 5, Chamath Palihapitiya posted on X that buying Circle for $12–13 billion would represent a bargain. He noted that Circle “built the entire market structure for stablecoins well before formal U.S. regulation,” referencing the anticipated GENIUS Act, which aims to establish federal guidelines for stablecoin issuers.

His logic: Stripe, Square, Ripple, and Coinbase are poised to compete for stablecoin dominance. Acquiring Circle would place any of these firms at the forefront of U.S. stablecoin infrastructure.

Chamath’s tweet lays out several data points:

• IPO oversubscription of 25x, yielding a near-$7 billion valuation.
• A $12–13 billion acquisition price would capture long-term value, perhaps over a 20-year horizon.
• The strategic importance of stablecoins under pending U.S. regulation (i.e., the GENIUS Act).

He argued that the entity that “builds the most efficient infrastructure and sells it at cost-plus with a thin margin” will likely dominate the market.

By these metrics, Circle’s USDC platform already underpins a vast network of on-ramps, on-chain liquidity pools, and institutional integrations.

Rumors of Ripple’s interest in Circle first surfaced in mid-May. Bloomberg reported that Ripple submitted a $10 billion bid, which Circle allegedly rejected.

Coinbase was said to have made a counteroffer, though none of these talks were confirmed. Circle responded to inquiries by stating it was “not for sale” and remains committed to its IPO.

Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse also denied any formal offer, saying only that “talks may have happened” but no definitive bid was made.

Coinbase, for its part, has not directly commented on acquisition rumors. The exchange recently received approval to list USDC as a collateral asset for its staking product.

Coinbase’s strategy centers on expanding its suite of crypto services—custody, staking, and DeFi integrations—rather than outright M&A.

Stablecoin Race and Regulatory Context

Circle IPO timing coincides with a moment of intense regulatory focus in the U.S. The GENIUS Act, which advanced past its first procedural vote on May 20, 2025, with a 66–32 bipartisan tally, seeks to impose strict rules on stablecoin issuers: full-reserve backing, regular audits, and anti-money-laundering measures.

Circle’s early compliance and existing partnerships with regulated banks put it in a prime position. Acquiring Circle would grant a buyer immediate market share in the stablecoin sector.

USDC currently ranks among the top three global stablecoins by market cap, with daily transaction volumes exceeding $20 billion.

By contrast, Tether (USDT) leads with over $60 billion daily, but USDC’s ISO-certified reserves and transparent audits have earned institutional trust.

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