Bitcoin Down 40% From Peak: PlanB Details Four Possible Bear Market Floors

• PlanB outlined four scenarios for Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market, as BTC trades 40% below its ATH.
• The predictions ranged from a near $72,900 to a full 80% crash toward $25,000.
• A retest of the $50,000-$60,000 zone is the most favored scenario, backed by 47.1% of poll votes.

Crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB, has discussed four possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s current bear market. The analysis follows a sharp drawdown of over 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of above $126,000.

Bitcoin bear market scenarios:
1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k
2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k
3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k
4) something else

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 4, 2026

Scenario One: 80% Correction From the Peak

The first scenario assumes Bitcoin repeats its deepest historical declines. An 80% drop from the $1…

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