ETH/BTC Ratio Drops to a Historic Low – Should We Be Worried?

The crypto market is going through a major transition phase. The ETH/BTC ratio has just reached its lowest level in five years, raising a crucial question: should we turn away from Ethereum in favor of more performing altcoins? While Bitcoin still dominates the market, some analysts believe that an altcoin season could be on the horizon. Others, on the contrary, think that the supremacy of BTC could last longer than expected.

The ETH/BTC ratio at a low: an alarming historical signal?

Ethereum, which was supposed to surpass BTC since January 2025, has been struggling for several months. Indeed, the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.022, a level not seen since 2020. Historically, such a drop has preceded strong increases for Ethereum and altcoins, like in 2021, when ETH surged by 1,650% in one year. However, the current situation differs from previous cycles.

Indeed, Bitcoin is massively attracting institutional capital, while Ethereum faces structural challenges: slower institutional adoption, still high transaction fees, and increased competition from alternative blockchains like Solana or Avalanche. As a result, as long as Bitcoin dominates the market, Ethereum may continue to suffer, according to some experts.

Bitcoin in force: a delayed altseason?

Traditionally, when Bitcoin reaches a peak, some capital shifts towards altcoins, initiating an altseason. But this time, indicators show that BTC maintains a crushing position. Its dominance, which was 61.2% yesterday, is 62.15% today, further reinforcing its supremacy, a level not observed for a long time.

The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index shows only 13/100, meaning that less than 13% of the top 100 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Consequently, some analysts, like Hansolar, believe that Bitcoin’s dominance could last all year, making any altseason uncertain.

However, others believe that the market could soon turn. For them, such a low ETH/BTC is often the prelude to a reversal, prompting investors to reassess Ethereum’s undervaluation.

Can Ethereum rebound?

Despite this bearish pressure, Ethereum has not said its last word. Historically, the moments when ETH/BTC was at a low have always preceded bullish reversals. However, several conditions will need to be met for Ethereum to regain ground:

• an increase in institutional adoption and volumes on ETH;

• technological improvements, notably through the deployment of fee optimization and scaling;

• an influx of liquidity towards altcoins, signaling a change in cycle.

For investors, the key question is therefore timing. Should we wait for an Ethereum rebound, or prioritize other altcoins right now? The answer will depend on market behavior in the coming weeks. If Bitcoin continues its relentless rise, Ethereum may remain under pressure for a long time. But if history repeats itself, an altseason could well emerge where we least expect it.