VanEck Analyst Warns of “Extractive Dilution” as Semler’s Stock Falters and Metaplanet Rallies

7h ago•

bullish:

bearish:

market analysis shows a growing divergence in the performance of public companies with Bitcoin treasuries, like Semler and Metaplanet.

A sharp divergence is emerging between Bitcoin-holding companies like Semler and Metaplanet.
Investors are punishing firms that trade below their Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).
Japan’s Metaplanet is succeeding after acquiring 10,000 BTC with sharp execution.

A stark divide is emerging among public companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets. As BTC hovers near all-time highs, investors are rewarding firms with aggressive yet well-aligned BTC strategies, while penalizing those perceived to be mismanaging treasury growth or shareholder value.

The divergence is being reflected not just in price charts, but in company fundamentals, most notably in the growing focus on market cap to net asset value (NAV) ratios.

Case Study in Dilution: Semler Scientific Trades Below Its Bitcoin Value

Semler Scientific, a medical tech company that pivoted to a Bitcoin treasury strategy in May 2024, has found itself in a troubling position. Despite acquiring 3,808 BTC worth approximately $404.6 million, its market cap has dropped to $434.7 million, placing its multiple of NAV (mNAV) at a concerning 0.821x.