How Exposed Are Ethereum and Solana to a Potential Quantum Threat?

According to Project Eleven’s latest report, about 65% of Ethereum (ETH) and 100% of Solana (SOL) are quantum-vulnerable.

The latest numbers arrive as blockchains step up efforts to mitigate potential risks posed by future quantum capabilities.

Ethereum and Solana Quantum Risk Mapped in 2026 Report 

Ethereum carries three quantum-vulnerable primitives, according to the report. The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) secures user accounts. Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) signatures handle proof-of-stake consensus. Kate-Zaverucha-Goldberg (KZG) commitments support blob data introduced by EIP-4844.

A quantum attacker recovering validator BLS keys could forge attestations, destabilize consensus, and trigger mass slashing across the network. Validator BLS keys remain publicly visible from the moment of the 32 ETH deposit.

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Quantum Threat To Ethereum. Source: Project Eleven

Solana’s vulnerability is structural. Its Ed25519 design embeds each wallet’s public key directly inside the on-chain address. Bitcoin’s UTXO model offers a partial buffer because unspent, unrevealed keys stay hidden.

“Solana exposes an X-only public key for addresses, rendering all Solana quantum vulnerable,” the report read.

Where the Post-Quantum Migration Plans Stand

Notably, both networks are actively preparing for potential quantum threats. Developers from the Ethereum Foundation launched a Post-Quantum Ethereum website in March 2026.

The team projects that Layer 1 (L1) protocol upgrades could finish by 2029. Full execution-layer migration would extend beyond that date.

In April, Solana Validator client developers Anza and Firedancer independently selected Falcon. The post-quantum signature scheme is approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The Solana Foundation framed its plan as ready to activate when needed.

“Quantum is still years away, and if and when it materializes, the work to migrate Solana is well-researched, understood, and ready to deploy,” the team said.

Project Eleven maps three Q-Day scenarios. 2030 is the optimistic case, 2033 the moderate, and 2042 the pessimistic. The firm cautions that its projection assumes only modest year-over-year improvement and no major breakthroughs.

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