This Metric Suggests Bitcoin May Be Setting Up for a Major Move Above $175K

Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching a new expansion phase, according to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto. His long-term projection places potential upside targets between $175,000 and $330,000, based on a statistical model that has tracked Bitcoin’s major cycles for over a decade.

To support this outlook, Egrag’s assessment uses a linear regression framework plotted on a logarithmic scale to capture Bitcoin’s macro behavior. He argues that the model has historically aligned with long-term trends since 2012 and continues to reflect the current market structure.

#BTC – Linear Regression (Log Scale) ( $175K – $250K – $300K):

👉So let me get this straight… You’re telling me that #BTC is sitting at the –1 Standard Deviation — the lowest level since the 2012 breakout — and somehow this means we’re heading into a Bear Market? 🐻🤨

👉Okay,… pic.twitter.com/Time2b5mCm

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) October 24, 2025

BTC Positioned for Potential Upside

In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), the analyst observed that BTC currently rests at the -1 standard deviation level within the regression channel. He said this point marks a historically significant low, comparable to the conditions that preceded earlier bull markets.

His chart, published on TradingView, illustrates Bitcoin’s monthly movements from 2012 through 2025 within the defined regression bands. The framework outlines three major levels: a midline near $175,000, an upper boundary around $250,000, and a top channel estimated near $330,000.

Based on this setup, Egrag believes the current position resembles the early stages of past upward cycles. During those periods, the apex coin consolidated before breaking sharply higher. He added that a moderate rebound from the present level could be enough to push the asset toward the $175,000 range.

Despite the chart’s optimistic tone, the analysis remains grounded in historical data rather than real-time fundamentals. Analysts often caution that models based solely on regression trends have limitations. They may overlook shifts in liquidity, policy decisions, and broader economic forces.

Bitcoin Maintains Strong Momentum

The pioneer cryptocurrency is currently priced around $111,000, showing steady momentum throughout 2025 after periods of sideways movement. The asset reached a record high above $126,000 on October 6. It is now approximately 70% higher than its value during the same period last year.

If Egrag’s analysis proves accurate, it would imply a significant, nearly 60% jump from Bitcoin’s current level. While the projection highlights a possible long-term trajectory, it has sparked discussion on whether technical models like Egrag’s regression framework can still anticipate Bitcoin’s next major price movement.

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