Quantum Computers, Governments or 51% Attack?

Lyn Alden Investment founder Lyn Alden asked a question that got many crypto investors and experts thinking, ”What do you think is the biggest structural risk to Bitcoin over the next 5-10 years?” And opinions were divided, though some threats were mentioned more often than others.

Quantum threat

Topping the list of potential problems is quantum computing, Castle Island Ventures general partner Nic Carter succinctly answered: ”Quantum computing.” His view received widespread support.

”I agree with it more and more. That was the catalyst for my question,” Lyn Alden admitted in her response to Carter.

Why it matters. Future quantum computers could potentially break the encryption algorithms that protect bitcoin, including the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that secures bitcoin wallets. Given enough power, a quantum computer would be able to forge digital signatures, allowing attackers to steal bitcoins from any public-key bitcoin wallet.

According to River's research, a quantum computer with 1 million qubits is capable of cracking a bitcoin address. Microsoft has already announced that their new chip called Majorana is paving the way to this milestone. This begs the pressing question: how long does bitcoin have before it must become quantum-resistant?

While the threat of quantum computing is serious in itself, some experts believe that the real problem is not the technology, but community management: will the bitcoin community have time to agree among themselves and implement the necessary quantum-resistant solutions before quantum computers become a real threat?

”The problem is that there may not be enough time to reach a consensus on implementing a quantum-resistant hashing algorithm,” commented Stillbigjosh, a former cybersecurity expert at Flutterwave.

51% attack

However, BlockTower founder Ari Paul pointed out that the bitcoin network faces a more immediate risk as the cost of an attack has dropped significantly, ”Someone could sell more than 10% of bitcoin's market capitalization and then spend about 1/10 of that amount to gain 51% hashrate control and mine empty blocks indefinitely, effectively shutting down the network. You can fork the PoW algorithm, but that means attacking a new network will now cost less than 1/1000 of the previous one.”

Conflict between decentralization and regulation

Beyond the technical challenges, some investors fear that government and institutional intervention will be the biggest risk to bitcoin over the next 5-10 years.

”The involvement of governments and institutions completely changes the incentive and motivation system,” commented investor Shinobi.

Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that over the past five years, the volume of bitcoins owned by private companies, public companies, governments and ETFs has grown more than 12-fold: from 210 000 BTC to over 2.6 million BTC. As a result, regulatory intervention could create legal pressure or unwanted changes in bitcoin's fundamental operations.

”The biggest risk is the tension between bitcoin's decentralized philosophy and the growing pressure of centralized regulatory oversight. In fact, as governments and large institutions tighten oversight and enforcement, the network may be forced to compromise on its core principle,” warned investor MisterSpread.

The discussion sparked by Lyn Alden's question highlighted the risks that could trigger ”black swans” for bitcoin. It also reflects a growing awareness among industry leaders and investors of bitcoin's systemic risks in an era shaped by political stability and artificial intelligence.