Analyst Warns: Crypto Is Near Bottom — But Not Done With Pain

In a new video, Dan Gambardello focuses on weekly charts, macro liquidity shifts and momentum indicators to argue that while sentiment is exhausted and charts “look so bad,” historical patterns suggest the market is somewhere in the deep bottoming process, even if the final low is not yet confirmed.

Dan Gambardello points to a fresh signal of institutional creep into digital assets: a new Franklin Templeton product marketed as “The future of crypto, simplified and streamlined” giving exposure to a basket of top tokens including Bitcoin, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Solana, Stellar and XRP.

He highlights that Cardano (ADA) appears in the lineup alongside blue-chip names, noting that large firms are “positioning” even as retail sentiment deteriorates. The message: despite brutal price action, on-chain and price charts should be read against a backdrop of ongoing institutionalization rather than in isolation.

Macro remains a key input. The host references quantitative tightening (QT) having “just ended” and compares the current environment to the 2018–2019 period, when the total crypto market cap first hit the 200-week moving average — a level that coincided with the last bear market’s start, and also with its eventual bottom.

On Ethereum’s weekly chart, the analyst zeroes in on the stock RSI and RSI.

He identifies three prior periods where both were oversold and the stock RSI “hobbled” at the bottom: the 2018 bear market low, the 2022 bear market low, and the “tariff capitulation” in 2019. Each, he argues, marked either the beginning, middle, or end of a major bottoming zone.

One historical pattern stands out: after QT in 2019, Ethereum spent roughly 140 days with the stock RSI deeply oversold before a final sharp leg down completed the bottom. By comparison, Dan estimates the current post-QT stretch at about 126 days, leaving “room for a drop to the downside still,” even if a similar capitulation is not guaranteed.

Cardano’s weekly structure, Gambardello says, is even more stretched.

The stock RSI has been oversold for approximately 154 days. In the previous post-QT phase in 2019, that same 154-day mark aligned almost exactly with ADA’s bottom near $0.03, before a rebound that was later erased by the COVID crash. In the prior full bear market, ADA’s stock RSI stayed oversold for around 168 days before the ultimate low.

With ADA now around $0.24, the analyst warns that sub-$0.20 prices are “so close” and investors should be prepared for a final capitulation move akin to 2019, without assuming it is inevitable.

He also flags a fresh weekly MACD bullish cross on Cardano — the MACD line moving above the signal line — as an early sign that ADA could at least retest the 20-week moving average, which has not been seen as resistance since mid-2021. A sustained recovery, he stresses, would still require reclaiming the 20-, 50- and 200-week averages up toward $0.57.

For investors, the takeaway is uncomfortable but clear: whether the final low lands in the coming weeks or closer to the fall, the analyst believes the market has already entered the broader bottoming zone seen in prior cycles. That leaves a narrow and volatile window where both capitulation risk and long-term accumulation opportunity may be elevated.

Delve into DailyCoin's hottest crypto scoops today:
Moody’s Rates First Bitcoin-Backed Bond – Why It’s a Big Deal
SWIFT’s On-Chain Pivot Merges Tokenization & XRP Ledger