Can Polymarket Overtake Kalshi? $20B Valuation Talks Begin

Key Insights:

• Polymarket seeks $1B at a valuation exceeding $20 billion.
• Revenue topped a $1.2B annualized run rate after its U.S. platform launch.
• New funding could more than double Polymarket’s October 2025 valuation.

Polymarket is exploring another fundraising round that could value the prediction market platform at more than $20 billion.

The talks come only months after the company completed a financing round at a $15 billion valuation. The latest negotiations also follow the launch of its regulated U.S. exchange and an increase in annualized revenue.

If the round closes, it would be more than double Polymarket’s previously reported $9 billion valuation from October 2025. It will also narrow the gap with rival Kalshi, which reached a $22 billion valuation after its May funding round.

Polymarket Valuation Rises After Expansion

The latest fundraising effort follows a previously unconfirmed financing round that closed in April. Wu Blockchain shared in the recent X post that based on the transaction, Polymarket raised about $1 billion at a $15 billion valuation.

The round reportedly included new investors D.E. Shaw and venture capital firm G Squared. Existing backers, including SV Angel, Dragonfly, and Valor Equity Partners, also increased their investments.

The financing additionally included a previously announced $600 million direct cash investment from Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.

Since completing that round, the company has expanded its operations by launching its regulated U.S. platform. As per the report, the business said annualized revenue has surged above $1.2 billion, nearly tripling since the April financing.

The trading activity has also increased across its platforms. According to Dune Analytics data cited in the reports, the U.S. exchange now processes more than $100 million in daily notional trading volume. That figure has increased from about $75 million at the end of May.

The company’s international platform records more than $150 million in daily notional trading volume. Reports also noted that betting activity across prediction markets accelerated during the FIFA World Cup in June and July.

Can Polymarket Close the Gap with Kalshi?

The reported fundraising arrives as competition within the prediction market sector continues to grow. Rival Kalshi completed a funding round in May that valued the company at $22 billion.

The Financial Times also reported in June that Kalshi planned another fundraising round in the third quarter, targeting a $40 billion valuation.

Although Polymarket is pursuing a valuation exceeding $20 billion, Bloomberg reported that Kalshi generated around three times Polymarket’s trading volume during July. The reported figures show the scale of competition between the two companies as both continue attracting investors.

Bloomberg also reported that Polymarket’s latest discussions remain preliminary. No agreement has been announced, and the company has not publicly confirmed the fundraising effort.

The company is led by Shayne Coplan and operates a platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Bloomberg reported that the company has also worked with large trading firms to improve liquidity across its markets.

Meanwhile, one of the reported new investors, D.E. Shaw, manages more than $100 billion and has long specialized in algorithmic trading. Bloomberg added that Point72 Ventures, the venture arm of Steve Cohen’s hedge fund, has previously invested in Polymarket.

If the latest financing proceeds, it would represent Polymarket’s first fundraising round since officially launching its U.S. exchange. It would also mark another move in its competition with Kalshi, as both companies continue to pursue higher valuations in the growing prediction market sector.

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