US CPI Data Triggers Bitcoin Volatility, Key Price Trends To Watch Out For

Key Insights:

• The price of Bitcoin drops ahead of the June CPI data, but now facing mild recovery.
• Market experts believe BTC could hit new highs soon, based on historical trends.
• Japan’s economy faces a delicate balancing as the 30-year Yield increased by 3.2%, weighing on risk assets

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing volatility just a day after hitting a new all-time high of $123,091.

The BTC price has dropped to the $116,000 level in the wake of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that was released shortly before this publication.

Market participants, including analysts, are now looking out for clues and trends to determine the next price outcome.

Analyst’s Take on the Upcoming CPI and Bitcoin Price

In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted an intriguing relationship between CPI and the price of Bitcoin.

According to Martinez, when Bitcoin experiences price drops ahead of CPI or PPI reports, it often rallies right after the data is released. The reverse is the case, the analyst opined.

Notably, the CPI report covers data for June 2025, providing key insights into inflation.

The data would track the average change in prices of a broad basket of goods and services over time. Per the data released, CPI jumped 0.3% Month on Month, up from 0.1% from the previous.

In May, the consumer price index swelled by 2.4%, falling below market expectations of 2.5%. Following the release, prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) rallied substantially as traders evaluated the impact of Trump tariffs.

At the time, Bitcoin recorded a 24-hour low of $108,367 and a high of $110,380, respectively. Ethereum, on the other hand, jumped over 1% to $2,798.

Investors anticipate the CPI reading to determine whether the Federal Reserve is succeeding in its efforts to combat inflation. A rising CPI signals inflation, while a falling CPI may indicate the potential for deflation.

The US CPI data aligned with expectations that it will spike by 0.3% for June, up by 0.1% recorded in May. On a year-over-year basis, the inflation rallied by 2.7%, up from 2.4% recorded in May.

Another Key Data to Watch for Bitcoin Price

In addition to the CPI data, another crucial inflation metric, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), is scheduled for release on Wednesday, July 16. It could provide the much-needed fuel for Bitcoin to shatter its current resistance.

The price of Bitcoin has remained steady over the past week, despite recent volatility. The leading coin currently hovers between $116,887 and $117,083, according to data provided by CoinMarketCap.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo on X highlighted a technical indicator, which suggested bullish outcomes for BTC.

Willy Woo noted that the Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO), a technical analysis tool used for assessing market cycles, has rallied to 1.2.

The BMO is used to measure when the market is overheated or undervalued based on historical patterns.

Values significantly above zero indicate overbought conditions, which have historically correlated with Bitcoin price tops.

With BMO recently moving towards 1.2, Willy thinks BTC is set for a more bullish rally soon.

What is Happening in Japan?

Meanwhile, Japan’s economy faces a delicate balancing, managing rising yields and inflation without triggering a recession.

Treasury yields in Japan have surged to new record highs, with the 30-year Yield hitting 3.20%. A Treasury yield is how much investors can earn when they purchase government obligations.

The surge in the 30-year yield indicates a significant increase in the cost of borrowing for the Japanese government over long maturities.

However, Japan’s 30-year government bonds have lost 45% of their value since 2019, reflecting the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, also known as yields.

As yields rise, the prices of existing bonds with lower coupon rates fall. This is because most investors prefer newer bonds with higher yields.

The collapse of Japan’s bond market shares some similarities with that of the US, signaling a broader stress.

Historically, Japan’s low yields fueled the yen carry trade. This occurs when investors borrow yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

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