Stellar Lumens price outlook: What’s next after XLM breaches $0.25 support?

Stellar Lumens (XLM) has slipped beneath its crucial support level at $0.2537, raising fresh concerns among traders and sparking debate about where the digital asset might head next.

The breach comes at a time when overall crypto market volatility remains high, and investors are weighing short-term pressure against long-term potential.

Although the drop seems minor in percentage terms, the technical implications are significant and suggest that XLM may be at a decisive crossroads.

The support breach shook investors’ confidence

The fall below $0.2537 triggered caution among traders as this level had acted as a consistent floor in recent weeks.

XLM is now hovering around $0.25, trading between $0.2462 and $0.2528 in the last 24 hours, signaling a potential shift toward a deeper correction.

This decline is accompanied by weakening technicals, as momentum indicators on the four-hour chart show bearish trends continuing to build.

The MACD has crossed into negative territory while the 12-EMA remains beneath the 26-EMA, further confirming the bearish setup.

Adding to the downside risks, Bollinger Bands are tightening around the lower band, and the Parabolic SAR markers have flipped to a position above the price.

Despite this, some analysts argue that the market structure is not entirely broken and that key support between $0.2450 and $0.24 must hold to prevent a deeper slide.

If this zone gives way, XLM could test lower levels at $0.22 or even $0.20, which would mark a significant retracement from its recent highs.

There is some bullish hope amid the decline

Interestingly, not all indicators point toward a continuation of the downtrend, as several signs suggest XLM may be gearing up for a comeback.

While price action remains constrained, technical analysis on the daily chart reveals a bullish pennant formation, historically seen as a precursor to breakouts.

The pennant’s base, supported by the 200-day EMA and a consolidation range between $0.19 and $0.22, shows where buyers have previously stepped in.

This alignment of support and trend lines suggests that the token could reverse course if positive sentiment returns and macro factors remain stable.

Furthermore, the RSI is currently at 36, just shy of the overbought region, which signals a possible bullish rebound.

Volume is slowly picking up as well, and despite recent declines, XLM has maintained strong engagement, as reflected by its $170.5 million in daily trading activity.

Adding weight to the bullish case is a sharp increase in open interest for XLM futures, which has seen a modest rise to $147.16 million.

Such a rise in open interest, particularly when combined with a price rebound, often suggests that traders are positioning for a potential upside move.

This trend is fueled further by speculation surrounding Stellar’s upcoming integration with PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD, pending regulatory clearance.

The move would bring Stellar into the institutional spotlight and could significantly boost its use case in cross-border payments.

Moreover, the network has already surpassed 265 million completed transactions, reinforcing the notion that its blockchain activity is not merely speculative.

XLM price forecast hinges on key resistance

If XLM manages to break above the $0.27 to $0.28 resistance range, it could rally toward $0.35 and even challenge the $0.44 and $0.63 levels in the mid-term.

However, the $0.285 to $0.29 zone—defined by the 200-EMA and descending channel ceiling—remains a strong barrier that must be overcome for bullish momentum to take hold.

Until that happens, bears are likely to stay in control, especially if the price dips again below the $0.24 mark with significant volume.

For now, the market is at a pivotal moment, with technical setups on both sides offering plausible outcomes depending on the next price moves.

As we monitor these developments closely, the coming days may determine whether XLM continues downward or stages a strong reversal toward its longer-term targets.

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