Strategy’s Stock Breaks Below Bitcoin Value Floor as Debt Coverage Stays 5.9x at $74K BTC

Strategy says its Bitcoin-backed assets still cover 5.9 times its convertible debt if BTC drops to 74,000 dollars. At the same time, its stock now trades below a key Bitcoin-based value band while Michael Saylor doubles down on the high-conviction bet.

Strategy Says Its Bitcoin Assets Cover Convertible Debt 5.9x at $74K BTC

Strategy said its convertible debt remains “over-collateralized” even under sharp Bitcoin price declines.

The company posted that if Bitcoin falls to its 74,000 dollar average cost basis, its balance sheet still supports 5.9 times the value of assets to outstanding convertible debt. It calls this metric its “BTC Rating” for debt coverage. In contrast, Strategy added that at a Bitcoin price near 25,000 dollars, the coverage would shrink to 2.0 times. The firm shared these figures while directing users to stress-test additional scenarios under the Credit tab of its internal dashboard.

Strategy BTC Debt Coverage Table. Source: Strategy

Moreover, Strategy compared the ratio to nominal debt totals shown in the table. Total convertible obligations summed to about 8.21 million dollars with durations ranging from 2.3 to 3.5 years. The table also modeled collateral multiples between 7.3 and 8.0 times for later maturities, showing how coverage trends lower as Bitcoin assumptions fall. Stablecoin reserves tied to the Credit tab were not disclosed in the post.

Meanwhile, the company framed its data update as part of broader treasury transparency. It has issued multiple convertible series under tickers including STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK, and STRD, totaling roughly 15.99 million dollars when combining debt and preferred allocations. Asset-to-debt coverage across these instruments currently ranges from 3.7 to 6.3 times, depending on maturity and structure.

Strategy asked its audience to model future scenarios using price assumptions available in the Credit tab. 

Strategy BTC Rating Tweet. Source: Strategy on X

It said the tool lets users change inputs for BTC price and volatility to calculate updated coverage ratios. The company described the effort as a way to standardize how it communicates risk metrics tied to its Bitcoin holdings.

Saylor downplays critics of Strategy’s Bitcoin bet

Meanwhile, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said criticism of the firm’s Bitcoin strategy does not concern him. In remarks shared by the Documenting Saylor account on X, he argued that outsized returns require going against consensus.

Documenting Saylor Quote Post. Source: Documenting Saylor

Saylor said “the only way you’re going to make 10–100x your money is if you pick the right thing and everyone else disagrees with you.” He framed Strategy’s large Bitcoin position as a deliberate high-conviction trade rather than a move guided by market approval.

Strategy stock slips below Bitcoin-based value band

Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Maartunn said Strategy’s share price has fallen below a key valuation range linked to its Bitcoin holdings. He wrote that the stock now trades around 170 dollars, under the lower band of the Bitcoin holding-based price bands developed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Those bands estimate where Strategy’s equity might trade if the market prices the company mainly as a proxy for its BTC stack.

Strategy Bitcoin Price Bands. Source: CryptoQuant / Maartunn

The chart he shared plots Strategy’s share price against two dotted bands. The upper band marks a richer valuation based on the firm’s Bitcoin position, while the lower band marks a discounted level that still tracks those holdings. For most of 2024 and 2025, Strategy’s stock moved between the two, with rallies testing the red upper band and pullbacks finding support near the green lower band.

Now, Strategy’s price line has broken beneath that green band. As a result, the move shows equity markets valuing the stock below the model’s “Bitcoin-only” floor, even though the company continues to accumulate BTC and expand related credit products. Maartunn’s comment highlights that, under this framework, Strategy trades at a relative discount to the value implied by its Bitcoin reserves.