Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Break Fails: What’s Next? Price Analysis

An assault on the descending trendline by the bulls on Thursday was repelled by the bears. After this break of trend failure the Bitcoin price is heading downwards on Friday. Where will it stop? Are the bears taking control?

$BTC rejected at descending trendline

Source: TradingView

Having just hit $110,000, this latest red candle is a sharp reminder of the power the bears still have at this particular stage of tug-of-war that the bulls and the bears are going through. A tiny green candle has just opened at the $110,000 horizontal level, but it could be swallowed up if this rejection continues.

The bearish scenario is that this dip continues and the price makes another lower low below $109,000. If this level does end up failing, the next decent level of support is at $106,000, with the psychological level of $100,000 perhaps bringing some real terror into the market if the price gets this far down.

Putting the rose-tinted glasses back on, there is good support at this current level, while $109,000 could still be tagged without making a lower low. 

Probably the biggest problem at the area of the breakout attempt was that the bulls were starting to get tired. Momentum was faltering as first the 4-hour Stochastic RSI indicators reached the top, and then when the 8-hour Stochastic RSI indicators crossed back down this was the signal that the bulls were defeated - at least for now. 

Moving averages starting to roll over - bigger dip coming?

Source: TradingView

The daily chart has some potential issues to keep an eye on. Firstly, the main Simple Moving Averages of the 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) are perhaps signalling some concern. The 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA are just starting to tilt downwards. If one looks back to the last time this happened, it was the beginning of a full-blown 30% collapse to the downside, which even pierced through the 200-day SMA which is supposed to act as bull market support. 

Of course, this might just be a little squiggle in these moving averages as they then turn back to the upside, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. 

At the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator line is bouncing at a band of support. If it drops through, the 200-day SMA might well be tested. 

Bearish divergence on 2-week chart - bears taking control?

Source: TradingView

Rather than looking at the weekly chart, the 2-week chart has less false signals and is therefore a very good indicator of future price direction. It can be seen that right now the price is sitting on the very important $109,000 horizontal support. If it falls through here, and confirms below, a much deeper price correction becomes possible. 

The two indicators at the bottom of the chart are currently providing ammunition for the bearish thesis. Firstly, the MACD indicators are shaping to cross down. Secondly, the Stochastic RSI indicators are crossing down. 

Both the MACD and the Stochastic RSI indicators are sloping down, while the price action is angled upwards. This signals bearish divergence for the entirety of 2025 so far. Will a big dip be required to enable this bearish divergence to play out, or could the price action shoot skywards and nullify the divergence? As it stands, the bears look to be firmly in control.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.