Bitcoin Price Drops After $9B Inflows, Will It Fall Under $100K?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price risks crashing as $9B in BTC moved to exchanges in 48 hours, raising red flags.
• Bitcoin price retraces from $123K top; $110.2k and $103.5k are the next key support zones.
• Price risks a drop to $98K if 0.5 and 0.786 Fib levels fail to hold.

Bitcoin price’s recent rally to a new all-time high of $123,000 may have hit a wall. In the last 48 hours, more than 69,000 BTC, worth over $9 billion, were moved to exchanges, triggering fears of an impending sell-off.

Several key metrics, including inflow spikes, long-term holder profit-taking, and weakening support levels, point to a potential retracement toward $100,000 or even lower.

$9 Billion BTC Hits Exchanges

Data suggest that a massive inflow of 69,423 BTC, equivalent to over $9 billion, was recorded in under 48 hours. This sudden move significantly deviates from the usual exchange activity.

Just two days earlier, exchange inflows were hovering between 12,000 and 13,000 BTC, per CryptoQuant data. The steep jump to over 54,000 BTC (69K spread across two days) indicates a sharp rise in short-term selling pressure.

This rise in supply on exchanges typically precedes profit-taking phases, especially after strong rallies. The key concern now is whether this is short-term rotation or the beginning of a deeper correction.

In most cases, whales end up offsetting the sell pressure, but in the current scenario, the same looks improbable.

Long-Term Holders Are Taking Profits on Bitcoin Price

Intel shows that a Satoshi-era wallet containing over 16,800 BTC recently transferred its entire balance to Galaxy Digital. Within hours, Galaxy deposited over 2,000 BTC to both Binance and Bybit.

This chunk is derived from the bigger BTC chunk of 80,009 coins belonging to the OG. Even though Bitcoin maxi transferred 40,009 BTC to Galaxy Digital, as reported by Lookonchain.

This move coincides with a sharp spike in Coin Days Destroyed, an on-chain metric that tracks how long coins remained dormant before being moved. A sudden rise here usually reflects profit-taking by long-term holders, often seen near market tops.

Glassnode also confirmed that over $1.96 billion worth of BTC held in profit was realized recently. It also indicates that big players might be exiting or rotating out after the recent run-up.

What’s interesting is that while we expect profit booking from short-term holders, long-term holders selling off their stash can be alarming to the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin Price Retracement Begins: Where Are the Key Supports?

Bitcoin’s price has already begun to retrace from the $123K top. Based on standard Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $98K low to the recent ATH of $123K, key supports lie at:

• $110,682 (0.5 Fib)
• $107,682 (0.618 Fib and the strongest)
• $98,160 (1.0 Fib)

These levels act as natural bounce zones during corrections. But if inflows keep rising and volume remains skewed toward selling, the $98K floor could be tested soon.

The chart shows that the $113K level is already being approached. If that breaks, the lower Fib levels can be invaded quickly, as then long liquidations will lead to more BTC selling.

Therefore, $110K becomes the next immediate area of interest, followed by $98K as the last line of defense before a larger macro pullback.

The combined rise in exchange supply, whale transactions, and long-term holder exits paints a cautionary picture. While the broader trend remains bullish over the long term, the short-term momentum appears to be fading.

If exchange inflows remain elevated and prices fail to hold $110.7k, traders should prepare for a move toward $100k or lower. Conversely, if Bitcoin bounces strongly from the $103.5k or $98k zones with falling exchange supply, it would signal a potential resumption of the uptrend.

However, the current bearish trend would be invalidated if the whales absorb the exchange inflows and sell-side pressure, and BTC moves back up from the $117 level.

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