Bitcoin Trades Flat: Key Catalysts to Watch Before the Next Breakout

Bitcoin edged around 1% higher and neared $113K over the past 24 hours, trading in a narrow band as investors balance cautious optimism against looming macro catalysts. With markets assigning a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by September 17, sovereign accumulation continuing, and technical signals flashing neutrality, BTC remains in a holding pattern just below resistance. The question is whether incoming policy decisions and structural demand can propel the next breakout.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Policy in Focus

Weak August jobs data — just +22K jobs vs. +75K forecast — reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates this month. Markets now price in a 90% probability of easing, a shift that directly affects Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Historically, BTC has shown an inverse correlation to real yields and USD strength. If the Fed moves dovishly, capital could flow back into risk assets, setting the stage for BTC to retest key resistance.

Fed policy remains the dominant swing factor. Traders are preparing for volatility around the September 17 meeting, with positioning cautious until confirmation arrives.

Sovereign and Institutional Buying Provide Structural Support

Despite Bitcoin’s -4.48% decline over 30 days, sovereign and institutional demand has proven resilient:

• El Salvador purchased 28 BTC ($3.1M) this week ahead of the 4th anniversary of its Bitcoin Law, bringing holdings to roughly 3,300 BTC ($373M).

• Japan’s Metaplanet announced a $61.4M BTC acquisition, signaling growing institutional interest from Asia.

While retail sentiment remains hesitant, sovereign purchases and treasury allocations validate Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset. This demand provides a safety net, cushioning downside risks even in periods of muted momentum.

Technical Picture: Neutral With a Bullish Bias

BTC currently trades between its 7-day SMA ($111,109) and 30-day SMA ($113,730), signaling consolidation. The RSI-14 at 49 points to neutral momentum, while a rising MACD histogram suggests an emerging bullish divergence.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $113,836 (61.8% Fibonacci level). A breakout here could target $117,892 (38.2% Fib).

• Support: $111K zone remains critical. Failure here risks erasing short-term bullish signals.

Technicals are balanced, leaning slightly bullish. The lack of conviction underscores the market’s wait-and-see approach ahead of macro clarity.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.