Analysts Reject Claims That BTC Will Repeat 2022 Collapse

Most analysts disagree, and pointed to the vastly different macroeconomic conditions today and a lack of the fear-driven catalysts like FTX’s collapse. Michael Saylor dismissed the idea of another crypto winter entirely, as he believes that Bitcoin is now on a long-term upward path. Saylor also revealed that his Bitcoin conviction was born out of the post-COVID monetary policies, which he described as a “war on currency.” Meanwhile, Swedish health tech firm H100 Group AB saw its stock surge 45% after raising $10.6 million to expand its Bitcoin treasury.

Peter Brandt Questions Bitcoin Rally

Veteran trader Peter Brandt started a fresh debate among crypto analysts with a speculative post on X, which suggested that Bitcoin could be mirroring its 2022 trajectory and potentially face a 75% correction. Recalling the previous market cycle, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000 in November of 2021 before plunging roughly 76% over the next year to around $16,195. Brandt asked whether a similar pattern could play out from today’s price close to $107,810, which would mean a drop to around $26,000. This level was last seen in September of 2023.

Despite the historical reference, market experts are still unconvinced that such a drastic correction is on the horizon. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, explained that macroeconomic conditions are fundamentally different now compared to the post-COVID stimulus era of 2022. He pointed out that the current market does not share the same monetary excesses that fueled risk-on behavior back then.

Bitcoin analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged some similarities in chart structure but argued that the magnitude of a correction will likely be far less severe this time. He attributed the previous bear market’s intensity to major events like the collapse of FTX and the US Federal Reserve’s abrupt shift to a hawkish monetary policy, factors that are not present today.

(Source: X)

Collective Shift analyst Simon Amery also pointed out that the Fed’s current direction is toward easing rather than tightening, and added to the argument that conditions are more favorable for Bitcoin now than they were in late 2021. Similarly, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto dismissed the idea of a peak due to the lack of euphoria that typically characterizes market tops.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy and a prominent Bitcoin advocate, outright rejected any forecasts of a downturn. Speaking to Bloomberg, he said that the era of crypto winters is over. “If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” he said.

Michael Saylor’s Bloomberg interview

While Brandt’s cautionary outlook stirred a lot of conversation, but most analysts see little evidence supporting the idea of another 75% correction.

Covid Policies Pushed Saylor to Bitcoin

Michael Saylor also recently revealed that the driving force behind his massive Bitcoin investment was the global economic response to COVID-19, which he described as a “war on currency.” Speaking with Dr. Jordan B. Peterson in a June 9 interview, Saylor explained that it was not the pandemic itself, but the monetary policies and lockdowns that followed, which pushed him to seek an alternative store of value. 

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In an email to employees at the time, Saylor decried the restrictions as “soul-stealing” and pointed out the stark contrast between the suffering on Main Street and the prosperity on Wall Street. While small businesses were being devastated by lockdowns, financial markets rebounded quickly, which was largely due to central banks slashing interest rates and injecting liquidity into the economy.

With $500 million in cash reserves and no yield in sight due to near-zero interest rates, Saylor felt backed into a corner. He called the situation a choice between “a fast death or a slow death,” as inflation in asset prices erased the value of holding cash. 

Saylor described the Federal Reserve’s aggressive money printing as causing “hyperinflation in financial assets,” enriching Wall Street while leaving traditional cash holders like him at a disadvantage. He ruled out sovereign debt and real estate due to overvaluation, and joked about the impossibility of finding $500 million in fairly priced Picassos and Monets. What he needed, he concluded, was a liquid and durable store of value.

He was initially skeptical of crypto, which he once dismissed as a “scam coin,” but Saylor reached out to longtime friend Eric Weiss, founder of the Blockchain Investment Group. After consuming large amounts of educational content, he realized that Bitcoin offered a unique solution—a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value similar to gold but better suited for the digital age. 

Strategy Bitcoin holdings (Source: SaylorTracker)

MicroStrategy made its first purchase of 21,454 BTC for $250 million in August of 2020. Since then, the firm has grown to become the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin after amassing 582,000 BTC valued at approximately $63 billion. 

H100 Stock Soars After Bitcoin Bet

Swedish health tech firm H100 Group AB and its shareholders also seem confident in Bitcoin’s trajectory. The firm’s stock price surged by 45% on Wednesday after the announcement of a successful capital raise to boost its Bitcoin treasury strategy. 

The company raised 101 million Swedish krona, or approximately $10.6 million, which was much higher than its earlier raise of $2.2 million led by Bitcoin advocate Adam Back on May 25. So far, it seems like this new funding reinforced investor confidence, pushing H100’s share price to 4.64 krona ($0.49) on the Nordic Growth Market. This is a staggering 280% increase since the company first announced its Bitcoin strategy on May 22, according to data from MarketWatch.

H100 Group’s share price over the past 5 days (Source: MarketWatch)

The capital raise was structured into two segments: 69.65 million krona from share issues and an additional 31.35 million krona from convertible loans. H100 stated that the net proceeds will be used explicitly to accelerate its Bitcoin treasury efforts. Based on current prices, this will allow the company to purchase around 67.1 BTC, which would bring its total holdings to 81.85 BTC when added to its existing reserve of 13.95 BTC. 

The firm explained  that this is part of a shift toward incorporating Bitcoin into its balance sheet, to align with the growing global trend where publicly traded companies are increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset. About 126 firms worldwide have added Bitcoin to their treasuries, with 14 new companies doing so in the past three weeks alone, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

Bitcoin holders (Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET)

The recent funding round drew support from a mix of investors including UTXO Management, Adam Back, and Nordic-based investment firms like Race Ventures Scandinavia and Crafoord Capital Partners. Notably, the convertible loans carry no interest and are set to mature in five years, with an option for investors to convert into equity at 1.75 krona per share.