Bitcoin Nears ATH Despite Lagging Network Activity

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently witnessing a notable price performance. As per Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin’s price is nearing the all-time high (ATH) while its on-chain metrics indicate lagging network activity. In this respect, as the popular crypto analyst mentioned on social media, the BTC Z-Score is nearly +1.5σ above the 1-year average. This presents a robust momentum without getting into the overheating territory at +2.5σs.

Currently, the price is near the ATH, while the BTC Z-Score (Price, 30/365) sits around +1.5σ above its 1-year norm but short of the +2.5σ overheating zone. Momentum is firm, not extreme.

APD remains negative near −1.5 after a rebound from local lows around −2: price is… pic.twitter.com/i8o8IhvGpb

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 9, 2025

APD Indicator Signifies Weak Network Activity Despite Price Surge

The analyst is of the view that, despite the strong price action of Bitcoin, the Activity-Price Divergence (APD) indicator is still negative. This signals that, irrespective of the bullish investor sentiment, the core network support remains subdued. Several metrics like 356-day and 30-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the APD, and Bitcoin’s price in USD also reinforce this market outlook.

Specifically, the APD has reportedly surged from the local decreases near -2, and currently it is hovering around -1.5. This suggests that amid the narrowing gap between activity and price, it still backs price. BTC Z-Score also reinforces this assessment of strong but not maximum momentum.

Bitcoin Investors Advised to Stay Cautious As APD Normalizes

According to Axel Adler Jr, APD’s shift toward zero does not offer a sell or buy signal, but rather a normalization sign. The analyst considers this to be a result of heightened network activity amid stable gains, or through a price cooling. Keeping this in view, despite the bullish technical backdrop, the analyst stresses the significance of on-chain validation. In the meantime, the investors are advised to stay cautious until the healthier setup marked by APD’s approach to zero.