Arthur Hayes Forecasts BTC Drop Below $80K Ahead of Fed QT Halt

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says macro liquidity trends are showing early signs of improvement.

Hayes believes that this could probably lead to a Bitcoin BTC $86 892 24h volatility: 0.3% Market cap: $1.73 T Vol. 24h: $73.31 B price recovery, while staying confident that liquidity conditions would improve after the US Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Final BTC Price Dip Under $80K

Crypto industry veteran Arthur Hayes noted that Bitcoin may continue to trade below the $90,000 level in the near term.

He also flagged the possibility of one final BTC price move toward the low-$80,000 range. However, he believes the $80,000 level is likely to hold as support.

minor improvements in $ liq:
– fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s
– us banks increased lending in nov

we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k's but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 24, 2025

 

Despite the pullback, Hayes indicated he is considering small accumulation but plans to delay larger purchases until early next year.

Hayes says macro liquidity trends are showing early signs of improvement, while highlighting two key developments.

The first is that the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to halt quantitative tightening on December 1.

The other big improvement is that U.S. banks increased lending activity in November. Both hint at greater liquidity, which could benefit risk-on assets like BTC and digital assets.

In a similar prediction, market research firm Swissblock noted a sharp decline in its “Risk-Off Signal,” indicating that the most intense phase of selling may have passed.

The firm added that any remaining weakness is likely to appear as a smaller, secondary wave, potentially signaling seller exhaustion. This ultimately signals a shift towards buying momentum ahead.

Bitcoin Leads Digital Asset Outflows

As per data from CoinShares, digital asset investment products recorded US$1.94 billion in outflows last week, extending the four-week total to US$4.92 billion. This marks the third-largest continuous outflow period since 2018.

Bitcoin accounted for the largest share, with US$1.27 billion exiting the asset during the week, amid the BTC price correction.

However, the report noted a partial reversal on Friday, when the asset saw US$225 million in inflows.

Last week, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF saw record outflows, leading the pack. The early trading hours on Monday, November 24, show that the fund continues to bleed further.

BlackRock just deposited another 2,822 $BTC($243.59M) and 36,283 $ETH($101.72M) to #CoinbasePrime.https://t.co/qmuDIrPHc6 pic.twitter.com/cAFKd0xDCY

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) November 24, 2025

 

Ethereum ETH $2 845 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $343.55 B Vol. 24h: $25.97 B also faced significant pressure, with US$589 million withdrawn. Last week, the altcoin saw outflows representing 7.3% of its total assets under management (AuM).

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