Is Bitcoin Rally Over? $8B Wallet Hack, Holders Retreat

Bitcoin is trading at $108,053, down nearly 1% in the last 24 hours after failing to break above the recent high of $109,142.23 convincingly. With the cryptocurrency hovering just 3.4% below its ATH, market participants question the longevity of the bull cycle.

$8.6 Billion Awakening

Eight long-dormant Bitcoin wallets, untouched since 2011, collectively moved over $8.6 billion worth of BTC. Each wallet held exactly 10,000 BTC, acquired initially at dirt-cheap prices between $0.78 and $3.37, representing a staggering 137,179x return.

A single entity moved $8.6 BILLION of BTC from 8 addresses in the past day.

All of the Bitcoin was moved into the original wallets on either 2nd April or 4th May 2011 and has been held for over 14 years.

Currently, the Bitcoin is sitting in 8 new addresses and has not been… pic.twitter.com/nm53tVRzLJ

— Arkham (@arkham) July 4, 2025

What’s most concerning is the synchronized movement of these wallets, which hadn’t seen any activity for over 14 years. The sudden reappearance left investors questioning if this is coordinated profit-taking or state-level asset mobilization.

Coinbase’s Head of Product, Conor Grogan, even hinted that the transactions could be a result of a potential hack. The executive pointed to a suspicious Bitcoin Cash (BCH) test transaction conducted just hours before the BTC transfers.

If true (again, I'm speculating on straws here), this would be by far the largest heist in human history

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) July 4, 2025

Hackers often use similar techniques of probing to confirm access to private keys before making major moves.

“If true… this would be by far the largest heist in human history,” Grogan posted on X.

While Grogan’s theory adds further insight into the abnormal behavior, the fact that other BCH wallets tied to the same entity remain untouched has further fueled speculation.

Whale Exodus & Retail Influx

According to analyst Amr Taha, the July market structure suggests that whales may be exiting while retail investors pile in.

Entities holding over 10,000 BTC reportedly offloaded 12,000 BTC on July 3rd alone, with the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort selling an additional 14,000 BTC since June 30. This distribution pattern often marks a local top or mid-cycle cooling.

Meanwhile, short-term holders, typically retail, have added 382,000 BTC to their portfolios in early July, signaling renewed optimism. Long-term holders, however, are trimming their exposure, a sign of profit booking at current prices.

Further, Binance Futures’ Open Interest has failed to break the $11.5 billion resistance level decisively, mirroring conditions seen on June 10th. The inability to sustain momentum on derivatives markets highlights that bears are at play.

Technical Outlook: MACD, RSI, and Fibonacci Levels

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s MACD is in neutral territory — the signal and MACD lines are converging with no clear bullish crossover in sight, suggesting a pause in upward momentum.

Meanwhile, the RSI  is at 54, reflecting indecision. Neither overbought nor oversold, the RSI hints at a wait-and-watch mood among traders.

More critically, Bitcoin is attempting breakout over the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($107,964). The next key Fibonacci target lies at 1.618 ($118,185), and if bulls can reclaim momentum, a move toward $130K (2.618 level) or even $150K (4.236) is conceivable.

However, failure to hold above $107K could see Bitcoin revisit support near $101K (0.382 level) or even $98K (swing low).

If $107K holds and the macro backdrop remains favorable, bulls may yet charge toward the $118K–$130K range. But if sentiment deteriorates further,  especially if the $8.6 billion transfer is confirmed to be malicious, a sharp correction could be imminent.

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