Bitcoin Price Prediction: Rally Near Despite Iran-Israel Conflict Dip

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price dropped 63% during the 2020 Covid crash before rallying over 1,720% to $65,000, yet analysts are making interesting bitcoin price predictions.
• A 30% drop during the 2023 Yen Carry Trade crash preceded a 124% Bitcoin rebound.
• The Iran-Israel war triggered a 7% Bitcoin dip after it peaked near $108,652 in 2025

A recent 7% correction in Bitcoin price after rising tensions between Israel and Iran has spurred interest in the historical BTC trend in the context of geopolitical shocks once again.

An analyst published a chart, illustrating that local bottoms were also preceded by the equivalent events, including the Covid-19 crash and the Yen Carry Trade meltdown.

In the visual analysis, the performance of Bitcoin relative to three major macro events is followed. The analyst states that there are usually lucrative accumulation events as a result of panic-induced selloffs.

According to the chart, every major external shock set the stage for sharp recoveries after the market sentiment stabilized.

COVID Crash Preceded Bitcoin Price Rally on Record

The initial case of the chart followed the progress of the Bitcoin price at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply by 63% to a low of about $3,800.

This collapse had been due to the fear in most of the markets globally when lockdowns and uncertainty took over.

Despite the decline, Bitcoin price rebounded strongly. From that March low, the asset surged over 1,720% over the next year, reaching a peak of around $65,000 by April 2021.

This bull run was supported by institutional investment, fiscal stimulus, and rising interest in digital assets.

The chart implies that the COVID crash became the foundational low for that cycle. The depth of the panic coincided with long-term capital inflows. This marked a major trend reversal in Bitcoin price structure.

Yen Carry Trade Crash Set Up the 2024–2025 Rally

Another critical event cited was the late 2023 correction tied to the Yen Carry Trade unwinding. At the time, rising Japanese yields triggered liquidity stress across global markets. Bitcoin price fell nearly 30% from recent highs, dipping from above $68,000 to below $48,000.

This decline was short-lived. Over the next several months, Bitcoin price recovered and advanced sharply. The chart shows a 124% rebound from the bottom, with BTC price climbing to $108,652 by early 2025.

That movement coincided with rising ETF interest in the U.S., corporate treasury adoption, and easing macro conditions.

The carry trade-related volatility echoed earlier panic patterns. Like in 2020, the initial drawdown led to widespread caution. However, investors who accumulated during that phase saw substantial returns as momentum returned.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Middle East Conflict Sparks 7% Pullback from Cycle High

Most recently, the analyst addressed the ongoing Israel-Iran war. In June 2025, Bitcoin corrected 7% from its high of $108,652.

The pullback came amid rising tensions, reports of evacuations, and global diplomatic uncertainty. Bitcoin price dropped below $101,000 during the peak of the headlines.

At the time of writing, the top crypto is trading at $104,291 after falling 4% over the past seven days.

Despite the geopolitical instability, the analyst notes that this decline mirrors prior shock-induced drawdowns. As in previous cycles, fear-driven dips may offer favorable entries.

More so, the chart presents historical reference points where panic coincided with eventual upward movement.

The analyst emphasized this during the Israel-Iran development, pointing out that black swan events often lead to monetary responses.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Macro Patterns May Repeat

The broader argument presented is that Bitcoin price has historically responded to geopolitical and macroeconomic stress in a specific pattern.

Sharp declines during uncertain periods were followed by rebounds as markets adjusted. In each case, price eventually broke past prior resistance once panic eased.

The analyst also referenced typical monetary responses. During past crises, central banks responded with liquidity support or rate adjustments. Such policies have historically aligned with improved risk asset performance.

While uncertainty remains, the analyst maintains that patterns suggest BTC price upside potential following periods of macro fear.

Analyst Ted Pillows added:

“From what I see, a major shock could hit within 48 hours. Something like a COVID-style black swan. When fear kicks in, it spreads fast. News will ripple through markets worldwide. Reactions will be brutal. But smart money won’t panic. They’ve seen this before: wars, crashes, pandemics. They know what usually comes next: Liquidity injections and rate cuts. If you’re long, consider hedging.”

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Rally Near Despite Iran-Israel Conflict Dip appeared first on The Coin Republic.