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I couldāve bought a Tesla with the money I lost in the last bear market.
I had crypto fever. The future of money was a divine revelation to me. Cryptocurrency had its blessing from all my idols: Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Tim Draper, and the Google founders. Techno-chauvinism was my church, and Elon Musk my saint. He still is, of course.
The narrative was sexy. Billions are unbanked. Central banks are defunct. People donāt trust the government. Payments havenāt kept pace with digital transformation. I loved it.
I wasnāt a blind convert. I looked at the data and listened to the experts. They had a consensus: Web3 and blockchain were the future. Invest in blockchain now- itās like investing in the internet in the 1980s. Itās going to explode. Youāre smarter than the masses- get in early.
I did. I didnāt have a house to bet, but I had enough cash for a Tesla. If I played the game right, that money could become a house. In the distant future, maybe a private jet. Insanity.
The fear and greed index then? 76. Bitcoinās price? $39K.
The shitshow began. I spent a hot interval listening to YouTube quacks on repeat. Could this many people be wrong?
Bitcoin went to $68k later in 2021. The fear and greed index went to 84.
My only regret was that I hadnāt bought more. Wasnāt that line in the movie The Wolf of Wall Street? Fuck. It didnāt turn out well for that guy. But do you guys follow him on social? His wife is hot.
Elon loaded Teslaās balance sheet with Bitcoin and looked like a genius. I loaded my portfolio with Bitcoin and felt the same. My doubts came when Bitcoin tanked.
āAlways ask yourself: how could I be wrong about this?ā I recalled an annoying business school professor asking us. He was chairman of the New York Federal Reserve. Was I wrong about Bitcoin going to the moon?
If blockchain is the future, why arenāt more people using it? Why am I paying 5% fees to Coinbase? Why does it take 10 minutes and $60 in fees to send my Ethereum to my hardware wallet? Warren Buffett calls Bitcoin "rat poison squared". The media, never letting a good hysteria slide, fuels whatever flames burn- green or red.
The fear and greed index sunk to 6. Bitcoin sunk to $18K. My Tesla cash turned into Kia cash.
I was too greedy. I thought myself smarter than everyone else. All was speculation, of course. Thereās a difference between sound investing, and gambling, which is about chasing dopamine hits the same way that an alcoholic drinks.
It taught me that Iām not above the massesā emotions. I donāt know whatās going to happen with cryptocurrency. Iām an emotional creature like everyone else.
A simple fear & greed index isnāt going to fix our problems. But the index is a gauge of how the world is feeling about cryptocurrency. This time, I'm paying attention.
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