Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have grown sharply over the past year, drawing in a wave of users. The combined monthly notional volume hit an all-time high of $29.8 billion last month, up roughly 588% from a year earlier.

Prediction Market Monthly Notional Volume. Source: Dune

However, a new Wall Street Journal analysis of platform data takes a closer look at how those users are actually faring, and the picture is far less rosy. The Journal found that more than 70% of Polymarket users are losing money.

Prediction Market Profits Remain Concentrated

According to the report, Polymarket has at least 2.3 million total accounts. WSJ reviewed 1.6 million accounts that have been active since November 2022. 

It revealed that just 0.1% of accounts captured 67% of all profits. This indicated that fewer than 2,000 of the accounts collectively netted nearly $500 million in profits.

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The typical user is down between $1 and $100. In addition, the bottom 10% have lost an average of $4,000 each.

“Casual traders are bleeding cash while a small number of sophisticated pros—including trading firms with access to vast streams of data—eat their lunch,” the report read.

A separate academic study analyzing data from November 11, 2022, through March 29, 2026, reached similar conclusions. It found that 68.8% of Polymarket users have lost money. Moreover, 1% of traders have accounted for 76.5% of total profits.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg separately reported that more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have lost at least $1,000 since January 2025. That figure is nearly double the number of wallets with comparable gains.

Losers Outnumber Winners on Kalshi

On Kalshi, losing users outnumber winners by 2.9 to 1, according to spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana. She cited data from the past month. The platform does not disclose total user numbers.

The Journal also examined over 35,000 completed mention markets on Kalshi. “Yes” trades priced at a 50% winning probability paid out only around 40% of the time. Therefore, bettors systematically overpay for those contracts. 

“On average, mention-market traders putting money on “yes” on the first price they see—a common pattern for retail traders—will lose 11% of the money they bet. Those returns are worse than most Vegas slot machines, according to research from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas,” WSJ wrote.

BeInCrypto has reached out to Polymarket and Kalshi for comment and will update this article with any response.

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