The Two Nerds That Beat Vegas Roulette With Science

In the late 1970s, two nerds shocked Las Vegas. They had one goal and their goal was to beat the casinos at Roulette.. Using science.

You would think the whole heist was orchestrated by seasoned criminals, but no. This was the genius plan of two young physics students from the University of California: J. Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard. They called themselves Eudaemons.

And what makes this story even crazier is that the whole thing started as just a fun high school science experiment.

Here is what happened…

The Eureka Moment

Farmer’s obsession began innocuously enough. While most of his classmates were indulging in music, art, and the countercultural movements of the time, he was drawn to casino games. To him, the spinning roulette wheel wasn’t just a game of chance; it was a complex system governed by the laws of physics. His hypothesis was simple yet radical: given the fixed nature of roulette’s inputs, its outcomes could be predicted.

Farmer viewed Roulette as a complex system govern by the laws of physics

Convincing Packard to join him wasn’t easy. The idea seemed far-fetched, but the potential for both academic recognition and financial gain was too enticing to ignore. Together, they embarked on a journey that would blend scientific rigor with the thrills of Las Vegas.

Collecting Data: The First Foray

Their initial visits to the casinos were all about data collection. These two geniuses were disguised in baggy and long-sleeved shirts. They concealed dictaphones around their wrists to record the wheel and ball speeds discreetly. This covert operation was the most important step in understanding the fixed variables of roulette—the wheel’s dimensions, the ball’s speed, and its rotational velocity.

Building a Predictive Model

With enough data in hand, they realized that predicting where the ball would land required a deeper understanding of how the wheel’s speed decreased over time. Not only that, but also how the ball’s velocity changed as it spun.

So here comes the craziest part; they sourced a regulation roulette wheel from BC Wills, a supplier for Vegas casinos. Despite a tense encounter with the FBI, who suspected illegal gambling activities, they managed to get the wheel to their dorm room. They somehow convinced the FBI that it was only a collector’s item. There, they conducted thousands of spins, meticulously recording outcomes and refining their predictive model.

The Guillotine

In their dorm room, they erected an elaborate setup, affectionately nicknamed “the guillotine.” This towering structure of metal poles, tape, and wires housed a camera and an oscilloscope, designed to capture the wheel’s movements and the ball’s trajectory with precision. The data collected allowed them to create a model that could predict a section of five numbers on the wheel where the ball was most likely to land.

The Real-World Test

With their model ready, the next challenge was implementation. They needed a way to input data quickly and discreetly in the casino environment. The solution was a custom-built, wearable computer. This device that was strapped to their chest would process the data and send mild shocks to indicate where to place bets. They were soon to find out just how stressful and discomforting this would be.

The First Casino Hit

In the winter of 1977, Farmer, with the computer strapped to his chest, nervously entered a Las Vegas casino. Despite the initial jitters and the discomfort from the shocks, the system worked. He began to win steadily, but the physical strain and the fear of being caught made the experience taxing. Still, the successful run validated their model and gave them the confidence to keep running the experiment.

Expanding the Operation

But they also realized they needed a more robust approach. So Farmer and Packard quickly expanded their team. They brought in other students and formed multiple pairs. Each pair had specific roles—one person collected data while the other placed bets. They trained rigorously, refining their techniques and improving their equipment, preparing for a full-scale operation. This is the type of masterplans you see villains go through in James Bond movies.

The Vegas Assault

So in August 1978, sixteen students arrived in Las Vegas, ready to execute their plan. They targeted different casinos, placing small bets initially and gradually increasing the stakes. But it wasn’t long until their conspicuous appearance and the malfunctioning equipment attracted the attention of casino security. And as the risks became more apparent, the pressure kept rising. They were bound to make a mistake soon, but will they?

The Aftermath

After an intense and challenging night, the team regrouped to assess their situation. They had made a profit of $10,000 but also faced significant challenges, mainly the constant threat of detection. So getting realistic about the situation and recognizing their limitations, they decided to stop while they were ahead.

Reflecting on the Experiment

In 2012, Farmer revealed the details of their experiment. He stated that their primary goal was the intellectual challenge rather than financial gain. Their story remains a testament to the power of science, physics, and the thrill of challenging the impossible.

Now it’s your turn.

How You Can Hack the Roulette Table with Science Yourself

If you want to play around with science yourself and try to replicate the Eudaemons, here is how you could pull it off:

1. Take Notes: Note down every number that the ball lands on during a whole evening. Note when the croupier changes. It’s boring work but you’re just getting data at this point.
2. Collect Data:
   • Visit the casino during off-peak hours when it’s less crowded.
   • Position yourself where you have a clear view of the roulette wheel.
   • Bring out your notebook and start writing.
3. Analyze the Data:
   • Transfer your data to a spreadsheet.
   • Use an AI model to analyze your dataset.
   • Identify any patterns or consistencies in how the ball slows down and where it tends to land.
4. Develop a Predictive Model:
   • Create a predictive formula with the help of AI.
   • Create a model that uses the observed deceleration rates to predict the ball’s landing zone.
   • Test your model with historical data to refine its accuracy.
5. Apply Your Model in the Casino:
   • When you’re ready to bet, use a discreet method to record the wheel and ball speeds during live play.
   • Quickly input these speeds into your model to get a prediction.
   • Place your bets on the predicted sections of the wheel.

Otto Bergstrom over at Roulette UK created a table for us that will help you understand your probabilities of each bet type.

Bet Type	Description	Type of Wins	Risk Level
Straight	Bet on a single number	35 to 1	High
Split	Bet on two adjacent numbers	17 to 1	High
Street	Bet on a row of three numbers	11 to 1	Medium
Corner	Bet on four numbers that meet at a corner	8 to 1	Medium
Line	Bet on six numbers in two rows of three numbers	5 to 1	Medium
Column	Bet on one of the three columns	2 to 1	Low
Dozen	Bet on one of the three dozens	2 to 1	Low
Red/Black	Bet on the color of the number	1 to 1	Low
Odd/Even	Bet on whether the number is odd or even	1 to 1	Low
High/Low	Bet on whether the number is in the high (19-36) or low (1-18) range	1 to 1	Low

If you want to dive even deeper into the Eudaemons story, it was featured in 2004 in the episode “Beat the Wheel” of the program Breaking Vegas on History Channel.